La Liga · Regular Season - 3
Real MadridvMalaga
Real Madrid
Malaga·
4 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.
We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:
- • Market prices and price movement
- • Head-to-head record and recent form
- • Lineups and injuries where available
- • Venue, kickoff time, and context
Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.
For comparison, the market gives Real Madrid a 90% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.
2Market
Open: 87% home · 9% draw · 4% away
Now: 90% home · 7% draw · 3% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Real Madrid
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 3.5
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Real Madrid
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Asencio — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Tchouameni — out (Muscle Injury)
- Endrick — out (Muscle Injury)
- Rodrygo — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Pitarch — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Mendy — out (Hip Injury)
- Eder Militao — out (Hamstring Injury)
Malaga
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- A. Ochoa — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Cajuste — out (Injury)
- H. Abaida — out (Inactive)
- A. Aznou — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Calero — out (Ribs Injury)
- A. Pastor — out (Illness)
- C. Dotor — out (Illness)
- A. Nino — out (Injury)
- J. Lobete — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Murillo — out (Injury)
- Juanpe — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Diarra — out (Calf Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Real MadridWWWWW
- Wed 26 Aug · H v Real Sociedad 4–1(xG 3.1–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Espanyol 2–1
- Sat 23 May · H v Athletic Club 4–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Sevilla 1–0
- Thu 14 May · H v Oviedo 2–0
MalagaDL
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Deportivo La Coruna 1–1(xG 1.9–1.1)
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Atletico Madrid 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Real Madrid have won 5 of their last 5.
- Real Madrid have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Real Madrid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Real Madrid's last 5.
- Real Madrid kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Malaga have won 0 of their last 2.
- Malaga have scored in 1 of their last 2.
- 0 of Malaga's last 2 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Malaga's last 2.
- Malaga kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 2.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Real Madrid
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Malaga
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Bernabéu, Madrid · Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- What is the team news for Real Madrid vs Malaga?
- Real Madrid's reported absences and doubts include R. Asencio, A. Tchouameni, Endrick, Rodrygo and 3 others. Malaga's include A. Ochoa, J. Cajuste, H. Abaida, A. Aznou and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Real Madrid vs Malaga?
- Real Madrid line up in a 4-2-3-1, Malaga in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.