Bundesliga · Regular Season - 1
SC FreiburgvWerder Bremen
SC Freiburg
Werder Bremen·
4 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- SC Freiburg50% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes SC Freiburg the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 30 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
For comparison, the market gives SC Freiburg a 52% chance. Our model makes it 50%.
2Market
Open: 50% home · 26% draw · 24% away
Now: 52% home · 25% draw · 23% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards SC Freiburg
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
SC Freiburg
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Yamamoto — out (Injury)
- P. Osterhage — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Muslija — out (Knee Injury)
Werder Bremen
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- M. N'Diaye — out (Groin Injury)
- S. Lynen — out (Hip Injury)
- J. Njinmah — out (Thigh Injury)
- N. Stark — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Stage — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Regeer — doubtful (Injury)
- O. Wojcik — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Weiser — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Topp — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Agu — out (Calf Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SC FreiburgWLDLW
- Sat 16 May · H v RB Leipzig 4–1
- Sun 10 May · A v Hamburger SV 2–3
- Sun 3 May · H v VfL Wolfsburg 1–1
- Sun 26 Apr · A v Borussia Dortmund 0–4
- Sun 19 Apr · H v FC Heidenheim 2–1
Werder BremenLLLDW
- Sat 16 May · H v Borussia Dortmund 0–2
- Sat 9 May · A v 1899 Hoffenheim 0–1
- Sat 2 May · H v FC Augsburg 1–3
- Sun 26 Apr · A v VfB Stuttgart 1–1
- Sat 18 Apr · H v Hamburger SV 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- SC Freiburg have won 2 of their last 5.
- SC Freiburg have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of SC Freiburg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of SC Freiburg's last 5.
- SC Freiburg kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Werder Bremen have won 1 of their last 5.
- Werder Bremen have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Werder Bremen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Werder Bremen's last 5.
- Werder Bremen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, SC Freiburg have won 7, Werder Bremen 1, with 0 drawn.
- SC Freiburg W–D–L
- 7–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 8
- Both scored
- 2 of 8
- SC Freiburg 1–0 Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen 0–3 SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg 5–0 Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen 0–1 SC Freiburg
- Werder Bremen 3–1 SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg 1–0 Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen 1–2 SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg 2–0 Werder Bremen
7Context
SC Freiburg
Rest: 106 days · 0 matches in 14d
Werder Bremen
Rest: 106 days · 0 matches in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Daniel Siebert, Germany
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
- Our model makes SC Freiburg the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
- What is the team news for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
- SC Freiburg's reported absences and doubts include R. Yamamoto, P. Osterhage, F. Muslija. Werder Bremen's include M. N'Diaye, S. Lynen, J. Njinmah, N. Stark and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
- SC Freiburg line up in a 4-2-3-1, Werder Bremen in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen?
- In their last 8 meetings, SC Freiburg have won 7, Werder Bremen 1, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.