Serie A · Regular Season - 2
NapolivComo
Napoli
Como·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Napoli46% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Napoli the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 38%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 30 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
For comparison, the market gives Napoli a 38% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 38% home · 32% draw · 31% away
Now: 38% home · 32% draw · 31% away
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Napoli
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- L. Spinazzola — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Meret — out (Muscle Injury)
- Alisson Santos — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Anguissa — out (Muscle Injury)
- Giovane — out (Groin Injury)
- B. Badiashile — doubtful (Lacking Match Fitness)
- S. McTominay — out (Heart Problems)
- P. Mazzocchi — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Marianucci — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Folorunsho — out (Inactive)
- A. Buongiorno — out (Knee Injury)
Como
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Kean — doubtful (Transfer negotiations)
- J. Addai — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
NapoliWWWLD
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Genoa 2–0
- Sun 24 May · H v Udinese 1–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Pisa 3–0
- Mon 11 May · H v Bologna 2–3
- Sat 2 May · A v Como 0–0
ComoDWWWD
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Udinese 1–1
- Sun 24 May · A v Cremonese 4–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Parma 1–0
- Sun 10 May · A v Hellas Verona 1–0
- Sat 2 May · H v Napoli 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Napoli have won 3 of their last 5.
- Napoli have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Napoli's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Napoli's last 5.
- Napoli kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
- Como have won 3 of their last 5.
- Como have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Como's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Como's last 5.
- Como kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Napoli have won 1, Como 1, with 2 drawn.
- Napoli W–D–L
- 1–2–1
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 4
- Both scored
- 2 of 4
- Como 0–0 Napoli
- Napoli 0–0 Como
- Como 2–1 Napoli
- Napoli 3–1 Como
7Context
Napoli
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Como
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli · Referee: Luca Pairetto, Italy
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Napoli vs Como?
- Our model makes Napoli the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.
- What is the team news for Napoli vs Como?
- Napoli's reported absences and doubts include L. Spinazzola, A. Meret, Alisson Santos, F. Anguissa and 7 others. Como's include M. Kean, J. Addai. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Napoli vs Como?
- Napoli line up in a 4-3-3, Como in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Como?
- In their last 4 meetings, Napoli have won 1, Como 1, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.