Serie A · Regular Season - 2
CagliarivInter
Cagliari
Inter·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Inter73% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Inter the most likely of the three results, at 73% (we would not be surprised by anything from 66% to 79%). Most likely is not likely: at 73% this result does not happen 27% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 69%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 30 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
For comparison, the market gives Inter a 69% chance. Our model makes it 73%.
2Market
Open: 11% home · 21% draw · 68% away
Now: 11% home · 20% draw · 69% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from the draw
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Cagliari
Lineup not yet confirmed
- J. Pedro — doubtful (Injury)
- Y. Mina — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Nzola — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Felici — out (Knee Injury)
- Y. Sugawara — out (Inactive)
- Kevin — out (Personal Reasons)
- Y. Trepy — out (Injury)
- R. Idrissi — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Esposito — out (Injury)
- A. Albarracin — out (Inactive)
Inter
Lineup not yet confirmed
- M. Spinacce — out (Inactive)
- D. Spence — out (Injury)
- J. Stones — out (Injury)
- H. Calhanoglu — out (Muscle Injury)
- H. Mkhitaryan — out (Suspended)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CagliariWWWLD
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Parma 1–0
- Sun 24 May · A v AC Milan 2–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Torino 2–1
- Sat 9 May · H v Udinese 0–2
- Sun 3 May · A v Bologna 0–0
InterWDDWW
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Monza 4–1
- Sat 23 May · A v Bologna 3–3
- Sun 17 May · H v Hellas Verona 1–1
- Sat 9 May · A v Lazio 3–0
- Sun 3 May · H v Parma 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Cagliari have won 3 of their last 5.
- Cagliari have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Cagliari's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Cagliari's last 5.
- Cagliari kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Inter have won 3 of their last 5.
- Inter have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Inter's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Inter's last 5.
- Inter kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Cagliari have won 0, Inter 7, with 1 drawn.
- Cagliari W–D–L
- 0–1–7
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 8
- Both scored
- 3 of 8
- Inter 3–0 Cagliari
- Cagliari 0–2 Inter
- Inter 3–1 Cagliari
- Cagliari 0–3 Inter
- Inter 2–2 Cagliari
- Cagliari 0–2 Inter
- Cagliari 1–3 Inter
- Inter 4–0 Cagliari
7Context
Cagliari
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Inter
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Unipol Domus, Cagliari · Referee: Michael Fabbri, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Cagliari vs Inter?
- Our model makes Inter the most likely result at 73%. Most likely is not likely — at 73% it does not happen 27% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 69%.
- What is the team news for Cagliari vs Inter?
- Cagliari's reported absences and doubts include J. Pedro, Y. Mina, M. Nzola, M. Felici and 6 others. Inter's include M. Spinacce, D. Spence, J. Stones, H. Calhanoglu and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Inter?
- In their last 8 meetings, Cagliari have won 0, Inter 7, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.