Premier League · Regular Season - 2
Manchester UnitedvIpswich
Manchester United
Ipswich·
5 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Manchester United72% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Manchester United the most likely of the three results, at 72% (we would not be surprised by anything from 58% to 83%). Most likely is not likely: at 72% this result does not happen 28% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 71%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 30 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
For comparison, the market gives Manchester United a 71% chance. Our model makes it 72%.
2Market
Open: 69% home · 19% draw · 12% away
Now: 71% home · 18% draw · 11% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Manchester United
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Manchester United
Lineup not yet confirmed
- B. Sesko — out (Inactive)
- L. Shaw — out (Injury)
- M. Mount — out (Foot Injury)
- T. Heaton — out (Injury)
- A. Diallo — out (Injury)
- C. Baleba — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. de Ligt — out (Back Injury)
- M. Ugarte — out (Knee Injury)
Ipswich
Lineup not yet confirmed
- A. Matusiwa — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Philogene — out (Ankle Injury)
- Florentino — out (Inactive)
- J. Taylor — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Manchester UnitedLWWDW
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Hull City 0–2
- Sun 24 May · A v Brighton 3–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Nottingham Forest 3–2
- Sat 9 May · A v Sunderland 0–0
- Sun 3 May · H v Liverpool 3–2
IpswichWLLLD
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Sunderland 2–1
- Sun 25 May · H v West Ham 1–3
- Sun 18 May · A v Leicester 0–2
- Sat 10 May · H v Brentford 0–1
- Sat 3 May · A v Everton 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Manchester United have won 3 of their last 5.
- Manchester United have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Manchester United's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Manchester United's last 5.
- Manchester United kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Ipswich have won 1 of their last 5.
- Ipswich have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Ipswich's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Ipswich's last 5.
- Ipswich kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Manchester United have won 1, Ipswich 0, with 1 drawn.
- Manchester United W–D–L
- 1–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 2 of 2
- Manchester United 3–2 Ipswich
- Ipswich 1–1 Manchester United
7Context
Manchester United
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Ipswich
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Old Trafford, Manchester · Referee: Craig Pawson, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Manchester United vs Ipswich?
- Our model makes Manchester United the most likely result at 72%. Most likely is not likely — at 72% it does not happen 28% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 71%.
- What is the team news for Manchester United vs Ipswich?
- Manchester United's reported absences and doubts include B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Mount, T. Heaton and 4 others. Ipswich's include A. Matusiwa, J. Philogene, Florentino, J. Taylor. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Ipswich?
- In their last 2 meetings, Manchester United have won 1, Ipswich 0, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.