Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 2
MonacovMarseille
Monaco
Marseille·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Monaco43% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Monaco the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 30 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
For comparison, the market gives Monaco a 43% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 40% home · 26% draw · 35% away
Now: 43% home · 26% draw · 31% away
Moved −4pp — the market moved away from Marseille
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Monaco
Lineup not yet confirmed
- T. Minamino — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- J. Teze — out (Injury)
- A. Soubeir — out (Injury)
- S. Idumbo — out (Groin Injury)
- M. Biereth — out (Inactive)
- M. Coulibaly — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Fati — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Salisu — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Mawissa — out (Yellow Cards)
- E. Diop — out (Injury)
- F. Balogun — out (Injury)
- M. Abline — out (Foot Injury)
Marseille
Lineup not yet confirmed
- A. Koum Mbondo — out (Inactive)
- T. Nnadi — out (Injury)
- G. Kondogbia — out (Injury)
- I. Paixao — out (Muscle Injury)
- Q. Timber — out (Yellow Cards)
- F. Moumbagna — out (Injury)
- L. Balerdi — out (Calf Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MonacoWLLWD
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Le Havre 1–0(xG 1.4–0.6)
- Sun 17 May · A v Strasbourg 4–5
- Sun 10 May · H v Lille 0–1
- Sat 2 May · A v Metz 2–1
- Sat 25 Apr · A v Toulouse 2–2
MarseilleWWWLD
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Strasbourg 4–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Rennes 3–1
- Sun 10 May · A v Le Havre 1–0
- Sat 2 May · A v Nantes 0–3
- Sun 26 Apr · H v Nice 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Monaco have won 2 of their last 5.
- Monaco have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Monaco's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Monaco's last 5.
- Monaco kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Marseille have won 3 of their last 5.
- Marseille have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Marseille's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Marseille's last 5.
- Marseille kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Monaco have won 4, Marseille 4, with 2 drawn.
- Monaco W–D–L
- 4–2–4
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Monaco 2–1 Marseille
- Marseille 1–0 Monaco
- Monaco 3–0 Marseille
- Marseille 2–1 Monaco
- Marseille 2–2 Monaco
- Monaco 3–2 Marseille
- Marseille 1–1 Monaco
- Monaco 2–3 Marseille
- Marseille 0–1 Monaco
- Monaco 0–2 Marseille
7Context
Monaco
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Marseille
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Stade Louis II, Monaco · Referee: Willy Delajod, France
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Monaco vs Marseille?
- Our model makes Monaco the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- What is the team news for Monaco vs Marseille?
- Monaco's reported absences and doubts include T. Minamino, J. Teze, A. Soubeir, S. Idumbo and 8 others. Marseille's include A. Koum Mbondo, T. Nnadi, G. Kondogbia, I. Paixao and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Marseille?
- In their last 10 meetings, Monaco have won 4, Marseille 4, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.