Premier League · Regular Season - 2
ChelseavBrighton
Chelsea
Brighton·
4 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Chelsea44% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Chelsea the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 51%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 30 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
For comparison, the market gives Chelsea a 51% chance. Our model makes it 44%.
2Market
Open: 53% home · 24% draw · 23% away
Now: 51% home · 25% draw · 24% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Chelsea
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Chelsea
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- E. Emegha — out (Injury)
- Joao Pedro — out (Injury)
- M. Gusto — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Caicedo — out (Injury)
- M. Palestra — out (Injury)
- E. Fernandez — out (Coach's decision)
- E. Martinez — out (Finger Injury)
- M. Sarr — out (Transfer negotiations)
- J. Henderson — out (Wrist Injury)
- W. Fofana — out (Red Card)
- A. Anselmino — out (Inactive)
Brighton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Z. Yohanna — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- G. Rutter — out (Injury)
- M. Wieffer — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Svoboda — out (Injury)
- F. Azeez — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Orozco — out (Injury)
- J. Hinshelwood — out (Injury)
- S. Tzimas — out (Knee Injury)
- M. O'Riley — out (Illness)
- K. Mitoma — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Y. Minteh — out (Injury)
- E. Ferguson — out (Ankle Injury)
- C. Baleba — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ChelseaWLWDL
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Fulham 3–2(xG 2.2–1.3)
- Sun 24 May · A v Sunderland 1–2
- Tue 19 May · H v Tottenham 2–1
- Sat 9 May · A v Liverpool 1–1
- Mon 4 May · H v Nottingham Forest 1–3
BrightonWLLWL
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Aston Villa 4–0(xG 3.8–0.3)
- Sun 24 May · H v Manchester United 0–3
- Sun 17 May · A v Leeds 0–1
- Sat 9 May · H v Wolves 3–0
- Sat 2 May · A v Newcastle 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Chelsea have won 2 of their last 5.
- Chelsea have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Chelsea's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Chelsea's last 5.
- Chelsea kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Brighton have won 2 of their last 5.
- Brighton have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Brighton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Brighton's last 5.
- Brighton kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Chelsea have won 3, Brighton 5, with 2 drawn.
- Chelsea W–D–L
- 3–2–5
- Over 2.5
- 8 of 10
- Both scored
- 8 of 10
- Brighton 3–0 Chelsea
- Chelsea 1–3 Brighton
- Brighton 3–0 Chelsea
- Chelsea 4–2 Brighton
- Brighton 1–2 Chelsea
- Chelsea 3–2 Brighton
- Chelsea 1–2 Brighton
- Brighton 4–1 Chelsea
- Brighton 1–1 Chelsea
- Chelsea 1–1 Brighton
7Context
Chelsea
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Brighton
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Stamford Bridge, London · Referee: Michael Oliver, England
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Chelsea vs Brighton?
- Our model makes Chelsea the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.
- What is the team news for Chelsea vs Brighton?
- Chelsea's reported absences and doubts include E. Emegha, Joao Pedro, M. Gusto, M. Caicedo and 7 others. Brighton's include Z. Yohanna, G. Rutter, M. Wieffer, M. Svoboda and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Chelsea vs Brighton?
- Chelsea line up in a 3-4-2-1, Brighton in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Brighton?
- In their last 10 meetings, Chelsea have won 3, Brighton 5, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 8.