Premier League · Regular Season - 2
SunderlandvFulham
Sunderland
Fulham·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Sunderland37% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Sunderland the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 39%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 30 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
For comparison, the market gives Sunderland a 39% chance. Our model makes it 37%.
2Market
Open: 39% home · 29% draw · 32% away
Now: 39% home · 29% draw · 32% away
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sunderland
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Mandava — out (Red Card)
- R. Mundle — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Diarra — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Adingra — out (Foot Injury)
- D. Methalie — out (Yellow Cards)
Fulham
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Tete — out (Concussion)
- Manuel Angel — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- L. De Fougerolles — out (Injury)
- H. Larsson — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- T. Cairney — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Andersen — out (Red Card)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SunderlandLWWDD
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Ipswich 1–2
- Sun 24 May · H v Chelsea 2–1
- Sun 17 May · A v Everton 3–1
- Sat 9 May · H v Manchester United 0–0
- Sat 2 May · A v Wolves 1–1
FulhamLWDLL
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Chelsea 2–3(xG 1.3–2.2)
- Sun 24 May · H v Newcastle 2–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Wolves 1–1
- Sat 9 May · H v Bournemouth 0–1
- Sat 2 May · A v Arsenal 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sunderland have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sunderland have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Sunderland's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sunderland's last 5.
- Sunderland kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Fulham have won 1 of their last 5.
- Fulham have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Fulham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Fulham's last 5.
- Fulham kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Sunderland have won 0, Fulham 2, with 0 drawn.
- Sunderland W–D–L
- 0–0–2
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 1 of 2
- Sunderland 1–3 Fulham
- Fulham 1–0 Sunderland
7Context
Sunderland
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Fulham
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadium of Light, Sunderland · Referee: Michael Salisbury, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Sunderland vs Fulham?
- Our model makes Sunderland the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 39%.
- What is the team news for Sunderland vs Fulham?
- Sunderland's reported absences and doubts include R. Mandava, R. Mundle, H. Diarra, S. Adingra and 1 other. Fulham's include K. Tete, Manuel Angel, L. De Fougerolles, H. Larsson and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sunderland vs Fulham?
- Sunderland line up in a 4-2-3-1, Fulham in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Fulham?
- In their last 2 meetings, Sunderland have won 0, Fulham 2, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.