Bundesliga · Regular Season - 1
FC AugsburgvFC Schalke 04
FC Augsburg
FC Schalke 04·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- FC Augsburg55% · Match result
Our bet on this match
Match result: FC Augsburg
- We make this 55% against a market price of 43% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 68% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 2 meetings averaged 3.5 goals.
- 14 players reported unavailable — 7 for FC Augsburg, 7 for FC Schalke 04.
Our forecast makes FC Augsburg the most likely of the three results, at 55% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 55% this result does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 30 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
For comparison, the market gives FC Augsburg a 43% chance. Our model makes it 55%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 26% draw · 30% away
Now: 43% home · 26% draw · 30% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from FC Augsburg
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Augsburg
Lineup not yet confirmed
- A. Kade — out (Calf Injury)
- T. Schnitzer — out (Injury)
- S. Suso — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Sakar — out (Ankle Injury)
- K. Jakic — out (Injury)
- S. Mounie — out (Injury)
- T. Breithaupt — out (Injury)
FC Schalke 04
Lineup not yet confirmed
- D. Ljubicic — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Lasme — out (Calf Injury)
- A. Gantenbein — out (Ankle Injury)
- K. Karaman — out (Hip Injury)
- R. Schallenberg — out (Red Card)
- T. Kalas — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- E. Hojlund — out (Heel Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC AugsburgLWWDW
- Sat 16 May · A v Union Berlin 0–4
- Sat 9 May · H v Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1
- Sat 2 May · A v Werder Bremen 3–1
- Sat 25 Apr · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1
- Sat 18 Apr · A v Bayer Leverkusen 2–1
FC Schalke 04LDLWW
- Sat 27 May · A v RB Leipzig 2–4
- Sat 20 May · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2
- Sat 13 May · A v Bayern München 0–6
- Fri 5 May · A v FSV Mainz 05 3–2
- Sat 29 Apr · H v Werder Bremen 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Augsburg have won 3 of their last 5.
- FC Augsburg have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Augsburg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of FC Augsburg's last 5.
- FC Augsburg kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- FC Schalke 04 have won 2 of their last 5.
- FC Schalke 04 have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of FC Schalke 04's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of FC Schalke 04's last 5.
- FC Schalke 04 kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, FC Augsburg have won 1, FC Schalke 04 0, with 1 drawn.
- FC Augsburg W–D–L
- 1–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 2 of 2
- FC Augsburg 1–1 FC Schalke 04
- FC Schalke 04 2–3 FC Augsburg
7Context
FC Augsburg
Rest: 106 days · 0 matches in 14d
FC Schalke 04
Rest: 1191 days · 0 matches in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04?
- Our model makes FC Augsburg the most likely result at 55%. Most likely is not likely — at 55% it does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- What is the team news for FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04?
- FC Augsburg's reported absences and doubts include A. Kade, T. Schnitzer, S. Suso, F. Sakar and 3 others. FC Schalke 04's include D. Ljubicic, B. Lasme, A. Gantenbein, K. Karaman and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04?
- In their last 2 meetings, FC Augsburg have won 1, FC Schalke 04 0, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.