Premier League · Regular Season - 2
LeedsvBrentford
Leeds
Brentford·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Brentford39% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Brentford the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Leeds the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 35%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 30 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
For comparison, the market gives Leeds a 37% chance. Our model makes it 35%.
2Market
Open: 37% home · 28% draw · 35% away
Now: 37% home · 28% draw · 35% away
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Leeds
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- H. Wilson — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Rodon — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Gudmundsson — out (Hamstring Injury)
- W. Gnonto — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. Gruev — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Joseph — out (Knee Injury)
Brentford
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Jensen — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Milambo — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Furo — out (Surgery)
- N. Collins — out (Injury)
- J. Dasilva — out (Injury)
- S. van den Berg — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LeedsWLWDW
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Nottingham Forest 1–0
- Sun 24 May · A v West Ham 0–3
- Sun 17 May · H v Brighton 1–0
- Mon 11 May · A v Tottenham 1–1
- Fri 1 May · H v Burnley 3–1
BrentfordWDDLW
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Tottenham 3–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Liverpool 1–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Crystal Palace 2–2
- Sat 9 May · A v Manchester City 0–3
- Sat 2 May · H v West Ham 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Leeds have won 3 of their last 5.
- Leeds have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Leeds's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Leeds's last 5.
- Leeds kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Brentford have won 2 of their last 5.
- Brentford have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Brentford's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Brentford's last 5.
- Brentford kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Leeds have won 1, Brentford 1, with 4 drawn.
- Leeds W–D–L
- 1–4–1
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 6
- Both scored
- 4 of 6
- Leeds 0–0 Brentford
- Brentford 1–1 Leeds
- Leeds 0–0 Brentford
- Brentford 5–2 Leeds
- Brentford 1–2 Leeds
- Leeds 2–2 Brentford
7Context
Leeds
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Brentford
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire · Referee: Tony Harrington, England
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Leeds vs Brentford?
- Our model makes Brentford the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market instead favours Leeds at 37%.
- What is the team news for Leeds vs Brentford?
- Leeds's reported absences and doubts include H. Wilson, J. Rodon, G. Gudmundsson, W. Gnonto and 2 others. Brentford's include M. Jensen, A. Milambo, K. Furo, N. Collins and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Leeds vs Brentford?
- Leeds line up in a 3-4-2-1, Brentford in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Brentford?
- In their last 6 meetings, Leeds have won 1, Brentford 1, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.