Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 2
Paris FCvNice
Paris FC
Nice·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Paris FC38% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Paris FC the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 46%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 30 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
For comparison, the market gives Paris FC a 46% chance. Our model makes it 38%.
2Market
Open: 46% home · 29% draw · 26% away
Now: 46% home · 28% draw · 25% away
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Paris FC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- T. De Smet — out (Inactive)
- E. Mbemba — out (Inactive)
- J. Ikone — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Otavio — out (Injury)
- L. Koleosho — out (Injury)
- N. Sangui — out (Injury)
Nice
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- A. Mendy — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Boudaoui — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Amoura — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Sanson — out (Surgery)
- A. Abdi — out (Surgery)
- A. Witsel — out (Inactive)
- T. Moffi — out (Inactive)
- M. Bombito — out (Leg Injury)
- L. Abergel — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Paris FCDWLWL
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Estac Troyes 0–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–1
- Sun 10 May · A v Rennes 1–2
- Sun 3 May · H v Stade Brestois 29 4–0
- Sun 26 Apr · H v Lille 0–1
NiceDWDDL
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Lorient 0–0
- Fri 29 May · H v Saint Etienne 4–1
- Tue 26 May · A v Saint Etienne 0–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Metz 0–0
- Sun 10 May · A v Auxerre 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Paris FC have won 2 of their last 5.
- Paris FC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Paris FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Paris FC's last 5.
- Paris FC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Nice have won 1 of their last 5.
- Nice have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Nice's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Nice's last 5.
- Nice kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Paris FC have won 1, Nice 0, with 1 drawn.
- Paris FC W–D–L
- 1–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 2
- Both scored
- 1 of 2
- Paris FC 1–0 Nice
- Nice 1–1 Paris FC
7Context
Paris FC
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Nice
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Stade Jean Bouin, Paris · Referee: Jeremy Stinat, France
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Paris FC vs Nice?
- Our model makes Paris FC the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 46%.
- What is the team news for Paris FC vs Nice?
- Paris FC's reported absences and doubts include T. De Smet, E. Mbemba, J. Ikone, Otavio and 2 others. Nice's include A. Mendy, H. Boudaoui, M. Amoura, M. Sanson and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Paris FC vs Nice?
- Paris FC line up in a 4-2-3-1, Nice in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Nice?
- In their last 2 meetings, Paris FC have won 1, Nice 0, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 0 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.