Serie A · Regular Season - 2

LaziovGenoa

·

1 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

  • Lazio53% · Match result

Our bet on this match

Match result: Lazio

  • We make this 53% against a market price of 41% — 12 points of difference.
  • Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 78% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.0 goals.
  • 15 players reported unavailable — 10 for Lazio, 5 for Genoa.
  • The price has moved 4.7% away from Lazio since it opened.

Our forecast makes Lazio the most likely of the three results, at 53% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 53% this result does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 30 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

For comparison, the market gives Lazio a 41% chance. Our model makes it 53%.

LazioModel 53% [47%–60%]Market 41%
Lazio:, our forecast 53%, between 47% and 60%, market 41%

2Market

Open: 46% home · 31% draw · 23% away

Now: 41% home · 32% draw · 26% away

Moved −5pp — the market moved away from Lazio

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home53%vs41%+12pp
Draw27%vs32%−5pp
Away20%vs26%−6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs37%
Under 2.5—vs63%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.

Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.

Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.

Both teams to score

Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.

Yes—vs46%
No—vs54%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Lazio

Lineup not yet confirmed

  • D. Doekhi — out (Hand Injury)
  • F. Dele-Bashiru — out (Muscle Injury)
  • N. Rovella — out (Injury)
  • D. Cataldi — out (Groin Injury)
  • J. Sutalo — doubtful (Coach's decision)
  • L. Pellegrini — out (Injury)
  • A. Marusic — out (Muscle Injury)
  • Patric — out (Ankle Injury)
  • S. Gigot — out (Inactive)
  • A. Furlanetto — out (Knee Injury)

Genoa

Lineup not yet confirmed

  • E. Havel — out (Ankle Injury)
  • J. Vasquez — out (Red Card)
  • L. Venturino — out (Knee Injury)
  • C. Drameh — out (Inactive)
  • H. J. Traore — out (Muscle Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

LazioWWLLW

  • Mon 24 Aug · A v Bologna 1–0(xG 0.6–1.8)
  • Sat 23 May · H v Pisa 2–1
  • Sun 17 May · A v AS Roma 0–2
  • Sat 9 May · H v Inter 0–3
  • Mon 4 May · A v Cremonese 2–1

GenoaLLLDD

  • Sat 22 Aug · H v Napoli 0–2
  • Sun 24 May · A v Lecce 0–1
  • Sun 17 May · H v AC Milan 1–2
  • Sun 10 May · A v Fiorentina 0–0
  • Sat 2 May · A v Atalanta 0–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Lazio
  • Lazio have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Lazio have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Lazio's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Lazio's last 5.
  • Lazio kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Genoa
  • Genoa have won 0 of their last 5.
  • Genoa have scored in 1 of their last 5.
  • 1 of Genoa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of Genoa's last 5.
  • Genoa kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 8 meetings, Lazio have won 7, Genoa 1, with 0 drawn.

Lazio W–D–L
7–0–1
Over 2.5
5 of 8
Both scored
3 of 8
  • Lazio 3–2 Genoa
  • Genoa 0–3 Lazio
  • Genoa 0–2 Lazio
  • Lazio 3–0 Genoa
  • Genoa 0–1 Lazio
  • Lazio 0–1 Genoa
  • Genoa 1–4 Lazio
  • Lazio 3–1 Genoa

7Context

Lazio

Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d

Genoa

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Stadio Olimpico, Roma · Referee: Ermanno Feliciani, Italy

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Lazio vs Genoa?
Our model makes Lazio the most likely result at 53%. Most likely is not likely — at 53% it does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
What is the team news for Lazio vs Genoa?
Lazio's reported absences and doubts include D. Doekhi, F. Dele-Bashiru, N. Rovella, D. Cataldi and 6 others. Genoa's include E. Havel, J. Vasquez, L. Venturino, C. Drameh and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Genoa?
In their last 8 meetings, Lazio have won 7, Genoa 1, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.