La Liga · Regular Season - 3
Celta VigovAthletic Club
Celta Vigo
Athletic Club·
0 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Celta Vigo39% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Celta Vigo the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 35%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 30 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
For comparison, the market gives Celta Vigo a 35% chance. Our model makes it 39%.
2Market
Open: 40% home · 29% draw · 31% away
Now: 35% home · 30% draw · 35% away
Moved −5pp — the market moved away from Celta Vigo
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
Withheld: this forecast was made before we started grading this market on its own, so nothing here says it was ever calibrated. We would rather show you nothing than a number we cannot vouch for. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Celta Vigo
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- B. Iglesias — out (Injury)
- I. Aspas — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. El Abdellaoui — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Antanon — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Febas — out (Ribs Injury)
- M. Vecino — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Perez — out (Inactive)
- M. Alonso — out (Red Card)
Athletic Club
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Gorosabel — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Guruzeta — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Canales — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Djalo — out (Coach's decision)
- B. Prados Diaz — out (Thigh Injury)
- D. Vivian — out (Hamstring Injury)
- N. Serrano — out (Coach's decision)
- U. Vencedor — out (Inactive)
- U. Egiluz — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Celta VigoLDWDL
- Thu 27 Aug · H v Osasuna 1–2(xG 0.1–2.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Valencia 0–0
- Sat 23 May · H v Sevilla 1–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Athletic Club 1–1
- Tue 12 May · H v Levante 2–3
Athletic ClubLLLDL
- Thu 27 Aug · A v Barcelona 0–2(xG 0.2–3.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Sevilla 1–3
- Sat 23 May · A v Real Madrid 2–4
- Sun 17 May · H v Celta Vigo 1–1
- Wed 13 May · A v Espanyol 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Celta Vigo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Celta Vigo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Celta Vigo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Celta Vigo's last 5.
- Celta Vigo kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Athletic Club have won 0 of their last 5.
- Athletic Club have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Athletic Club's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Athletic Club's last 5.
- Athletic Club kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Celta Vigo have won 4, Athletic Club 5, with 1 drawn.
- Celta Vigo W–D–L
- 4–1–5
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Athletic Club 1–1 Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo 2–0 Athletic Club
- Celta Vigo 1–2 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 3–1 Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo 2–1 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 4–3 Celta Vigo
- Athletic Club 2–1 Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo 1–0 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 0–2 Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo 0–1 Athletic Club
7Context
Celta Vigo
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Athletic Club
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo · Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club?
- Our model makes Celta Vigo the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 35%.
- What is the team news for Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club?
- Celta Vigo's reported absences and doubts include B. Iglesias, I. Aspas, J. El Abdellaoui, A. Antanon and 4 others. Athletic Club's include A. Gorosabel, G. Guruzeta, P. Canales, A. Djalo and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club?
- Celta Vigo line up in a 3-4-3, Athletic Club in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Athletic Club?
- In their last 10 meetings, Celta Vigo have won 4, Athletic Club 5, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.