Published forecasts

Every forecast we have published, in the order we published it. Each row carries a hash of itself and the row before, so changing a probability after a match has been played would break every hash after it. That is what stops us quietly revising a number and claiming we always said it — and you do not have to take our word for the check, it runs when you load this page.

The published forecasts for Arsenal v Chelsea

These are the forecasts we published for this fixture, hash-chained so a number we wrote before kick-off cannot be quietly changed afterwards.

← Back to the full record

Chain intact across all 2034 published forecasts.

Daily seals

At the end of each day we write that day's final hash to separate storage. The chain alone would catch a single altered forecast, but not a wholesale rebuild from edited rows — evidence kept in the same place as the thing it attests to proves less than it appears to. Note a seal today and you can hold us to it later.

#PublishedMatchH / D / AResultHash
10832026-09-04 03:05Arsenal vChelsea64% / 22% / 14%our call landedwe called home 64% · home win02c11571d62c…
8122026-09-03 06:05Arsenal vChelsea63% / 22% / 15%our call landedwe called home 63% · home winc7bc0974a90c…
6532026-09-02 12:11Arsenal vChelsea63% / 22% / 15%our call landedwe called home 63% · home win57f0035a509f…
5312026-09-01 18:07Arsenal vChelsea63% / 22% / 15%our call landedwe called home 63% · home win4d14d5794273…
4862026-09-01 12:06Arsenal vChelsea62% / 23% / 16%our call landedwe called home 62% · home win0b54040f4e64…
4432026-09-01 11:06Arsenal vChelsea61% / 23% / 16%our call landedwe called home 61% · home wina183da4551e7…
4002026-09-01 08:06Arsenal vChelsea61% / 23% / 16%our call landedwe called home 61% · home wind64c0e14de6a…
3572026-09-01 07:06Arsenal vChelsea61% / 23% / 16%our call landedwe called home 61% · home win8f682c135a8a…
3142026-08-31 09:07Arsenal vChelsea61% / 23% / 16%our call landedwe called home 61% · home win2e9633a1d921…
2662026-08-31 07:07Arsenal vChelsea62% / 23% / 16%our call landedwe called home 62% · home win24fa670b8382…
2182026-08-31 06:07Arsenal vChelsea61% / 23% / 16%our call landedwe called home 61% · home winf0acbbf958e8…
1702026-08-30 16:07Arsenal vChelsea62% / 23% / 16%our call landedwe called home 62% · home winfce712ec7459…
1102026-08-30 15:07Arsenal vChelsea61% / 23% / 16%our call landedwe called home 61% · home win1a84de65cf7a…
502026-08-30 10:07Arsenal vChelsea62% / 23% / 16%our call landedwe called home 62% · home win9ed0ca797fcb…

The result column pairs the outcome we called (our most-likely of home / draw / away, with its probability) against what actually happened — a verdict, not a score: a 60% call missing is not a failure. Whether the probabilities are any good is a separate question, answered on the accuracy page. This page only shows that we have not changed our mind about them afterwards.