Premier League · Regular Season - 3
ArsenalvChelsea
Arsenal
Chelsea·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Arsenal64% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Arsenal the most likely of the three results, at 64% (we would not be surprised by anything from 54% to 75%). Most likely is not likely: at 64% this result does not happen 36% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 56%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Arsenal a 56% chance. Our model makes it 64%.
2Market
Open: 57% home · 24% draw · 19% away
Now: 56% home · 25% draw · 19% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards the draw
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Arsenal
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- B. White — out (Groin Injury)
- C. Mosquera — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Timber — out (Ankle Injury)
- Bruno Guimaraes — out (Thigh Injury)
- Gabriel Jesus — out (Transfer negotiations)
- G. Martinelli — out (Transfer negotiations)
- W. Saliba — out (Back Injury)
Chelsea
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- E. Emegha — out (Injury)
- Joao Pedro — out (Injury)
- M. Gusto — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Caicedo — out (Injury)
- M. Palestra — out (Injury)
- E. Fernandez — out (Coach's decision)
- E. Martinez — out (Finger Injury)
- M. Sarr — out (Transfer negotiations)
- J. Henderson — out (Wrist Injury)
- W. Fofana — out (Red Card)
- A. Anselmino — out (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ArsenalWWWWW
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Aston Villa 1–0(xG 1.1–0.3)
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Coventry 3–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Crystal Palace 2–1
- Mon 18 May · H v Burnley 1–0
- Sun 10 May · A v West Ham 1–0
ChelseaWWLWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Brighton 4–3(xG 3.0–1.6)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Fulham 3–2(xG 2.2–1.3)
- Sun 24 May · A v Sunderland 1–2
- Tue 19 May · H v Tottenham 2–1
- Sat 9 May · A v Liverpool 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Arsenal have won 5 of their last 5.
- Arsenal have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Arsenal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Arsenal's last 5.
- Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
- Chelsea have won 3 of their last 5.
- Chelsea have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Chelsea's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Chelsea's last 5.
- Chelsea kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Arsenal have won 6, Chelsea 1, with 3 drawn.
- Arsenal W–D–L
- 6–3–1
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea
- Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 1–0 Chelsea
- Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 5–0 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–2 Arsenal
- Arsenal 3–1 Chelsea
- Chelsea 0–1 Arsenal
- Chelsea 2–4 Arsenal
- Arsenal 0–2 Chelsea
7Context
Arsenal
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Chelsea
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Emirates Stadium, London · Referee: Chris Kavanagh, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Arsenal vs Chelsea?
- Our model makes Arsenal the most likely result at 64%. Most likely is not likely — at 64% it does not happen 36% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 56%.
- Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Chelsea?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Arsenal vs Chelsea?
- Arsenal's reported absences and doubts include B. White, C. Mosquera, J. Timber, Bruno Guimaraes and 3 others. Chelsea's include E. Emegha, Joao Pedro, M. Gusto, M. Caicedo and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Arsenal vs Chelsea?
- Arsenal line up in a 4-2-3-1, Chelsea in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Chelsea?
- In their last 10 meetings, Arsenal have won 6, Chelsea 1, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.