Premier League · Regular Season - 3
EvertonvManchester United
Everton
Manchester United·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Manchester United41% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Manchester United the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Manchester United a 48% chance. Our model makes it 41%.
2Market
Open: 29% home · 26% draw · 45% away
Now: 26% home · 26% draw · 48% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Manchester United
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Everton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Rohl — out (Injury)
- J. Garner — doubtful (Injury)
- W. Tamen — doubtful (Injury)
- C. Norgaard — out (Injury)
- T. Iroegbunam — out (Muscle Injury)
Manchester United
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- B. Sesko — out (Inactive)
- L. Shaw — out (Injury)
- M. Mount — out (Foot Injury)
- T. Heaton — out (Injury)
- A. Diallo — out (Injury)
- C. Baleba — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. de Ligt — out (Back Injury)
- M. Ugarte — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
EvertonDWLLD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Bournemouth 1–1(xG 1.7–2.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Crystal Palace 2–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Tottenham 0–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Sunderland 1–3
- Sun 10 May · A v Crystal Palace 2–2
Manchester UnitedWLWWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Ipswich 5–2(xG 4.6–2.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Hull City 0–2
- Sun 24 May · A v Brighton 3–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Nottingham Forest 3–2
- Sat 9 May · A v Sunderland 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Everton have won 1 of their last 5.
- Everton have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Everton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Everton's last 5.
- Everton kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Manchester United have won 3 of their last 5.
- Manchester United have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Manchester United's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Manchester United's last 5.
- Manchester United kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Everton have won 2, Manchester United 6, with 2 drawn.
- Everton W–D–L
- 2–2–6
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 10
- Both scored
- 3 of 10
- Everton 0–1 Manchester United
- Manchester United 0–1 Everton
- Everton 2–2 Manchester United
- Manchester United 4–0 Everton
- Manchester United 2–0 Everton
- Everton 0–3 Manchester United
- Manchester United 2–0 Everton
- Everton 1–2 Manchester United
- Everton 1–0 Manchester United
- Manchester United 1–1 Everton
7Context
Everton
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Manchester United
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool · Referee: John Brooks, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Everton vs Manchester United?
- Our model makes Manchester United the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Everton vs Manchester United?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Everton vs Manchester United?
- Everton's reported absences and doubts include M. Rohl, J. Garner, W. Tamen, C. Norgaard and 1 other. Manchester United's include B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Mount, T. Heaton and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Everton vs Manchester United?
- Everton line up in a 4-2-3-1, Manchester United in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Manchester United?
- In their last 10 meetings, Everton have won 2, Manchester United 6, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.