Published forecasts

Every forecast we have published, in the order we published it. Each row carries a hash of itself and the row before, so changing a probability after a match has been played would break every hash after it. That is what stops us quietly revising a number and claiming we always said it — and you do not have to take our word for the check, it runs when you load this page.

The published forecasts for Athletic Club v Atletico Madrid

These are the forecasts we published for this fixture, hash-chained so a number we wrote before kick-off cannot be quietly changed afterwards.

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Chain intact across all 2034 published forecasts.

Daily seals

At the end of each day we write that day's final hash to separate storage. The chain alone would catch a single altered forecast, but not a wholesale rebuild from edited rows — evidence kept in the same place as the thing it attests to proves less than it appears to. Note a seal today and you can hold us to it later.

#PublishedMatchH / D / AResultHash
10202026-09-04 01:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid37% / 28% / 36%our call landedwe called home 37% · home win5bc960e57aba…
9702026-09-04 00:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid37% / 28% / 36%our call landedwe called home 37% · home wine9205b8bf539…
7532026-09-03 04:07Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid33% / 29% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home win3709110bf690…
5942026-09-02 12:08Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid33% / 29% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home win8fef7100936d…
5172026-09-01 18:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid34% / 28% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home win565d5456666f…
4732026-09-01 12:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid34% / 29% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home winaffc66372f3c…
4302026-09-01 11:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid34% / 29% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home win3f585f27adcc…
3872026-09-01 08:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid34% / 29% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home win2a74df323f10…
3442026-09-01 07:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid34% / 29% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home win3661bd69ceb8…
3012026-08-31 09:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid34% / 29% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home win82215ca9e322…
2532026-08-31 07:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid34% / 29% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home wina22413437233…
2052026-08-31 06:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid34% / 29% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home win60b346476c0b…
1572026-08-30 16:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid34% / 29% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home win5c151f67ec9e…
972026-08-30 15:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid34% / 29% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home win9e28b0e8e2c5…
372026-08-30 10:06Athletic Club vAtletico Madrid34% / 29% / 38%our call did not landwe called away 38% · home win1535899c85df…

The result column pairs the outcome we called (our most-likely of home / draw / away, with its probability) against what actually happened — a verdict, not a score: a 60% call missing is not a failure. Whether the probabilities are any good is a separate question, answered on the accuracy page. This page only shows that we have not changed our mind about them afterwards.