La Liga · Regular Season - 4
Athletic ClubvAtletico Madrid
Athletic Club
Atletico Madrid·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Athletic Club37% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Athletic Club the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 43%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Atletico Madrid the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 32%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Atletico Madrid a 40% chance. Our model makes it 36%.
2Market
Open: 31% home · 28% draw · 42% away
Now: 32% home · 28% draw · 40% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Atletico Madrid
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Athletic Club
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Gorosabel — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Guruzeta — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Canales — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Djalo — out (Coach's decision)
- B. Prados Diaz — out (Thigh Injury)
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- C. Romero — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- T. Lemar — out (Coach's decision)
- J. Alvarez — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Sorloth — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Esteban — doubtful (Injury)
- P. Barrios — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Athletic ClubWLLLD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Celta Vigo 2–0(xG 2.6–0.6)
- Thu 27 Aug · A v Barcelona 0–2(xG 0.2–3.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Sevilla 1–3
- Sat 23 May · A v Real Madrid 2–4
- Sun 17 May · H v Celta Vigo 1–1
Atletico MadridWDWLW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Sevilla 3–1(xG 0.9–1.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Villarreal 2–2(xG 0.8–3.6)
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Malaga 2–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Villarreal 1–5
- Sun 17 May · H v Girona 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Athletic Club have won 1 of their last 5.
- Athletic Club have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Athletic Club's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Athletic Club's last 5.
- Athletic Club kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Atletico Madrid have won 3 of their last 5.
- Atletico Madrid have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Atletico Madrid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atletico Madrid's last 5.
- Atletico Madrid kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Athletic Club have won 3, Atletico Madrid 6, with 1 drawn.
- Athletic Club W–D–L
- 3–1–6
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 10
- Both scored
- 2 of 10
- Atletico Madrid 3–2 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 1–0 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 1–0 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 0–1 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 3–1 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 2–0 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 1–0 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 0–1 Atletico Madrid
- Athletic Club 2–0 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 0–0 Athletic Club
7Context
Athletic Club
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Atletico Madrid
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
San Mamés, Bilbao · Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
8Red flags
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
- Our model makes Athletic Club the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time. The market instead favours Atletico Madrid at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
- Athletic Club's reported absences and doubts include A. Gorosabel, G. Guruzeta, P. Canales, A. Djalo and 1 other. Atletico Madrid's include C. Romero, T. Lemar, J. Alvarez, A. Sorloth and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
- Athletic Club line up in a 4-2-3-1, Atletico Madrid in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid?
- In their last 10 meetings, Athletic Club have won 3, Atletico Madrid 6, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.