La Liga · Regular Season - 4

Rayo VallecanovRacing Santander

·

3 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

  • Rayo Vallecano45% · Match result
  • Over 1.573% · Goals
  • Yes52% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Rayo Vallecano the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 26% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Rayo Vallecano a 47% chance. Our model makes it 45%.

Rayo VallecanoModel 45% [26%–65%]Market 47%
Rayo Vallecano:, our forecast 45%, between 26% and 65%, market 47%

2Market

Open: 43% home · 28% draw · 30% away

Now: 47% home · 27% draw · 26% away

Moved +4pp — the market moved towards Rayo Vallecano

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home45%vs47%−2pp
Draw29%vs27%+2pp
Away27%vs26%+1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs55%
Under 2.5—vs45%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.573%vs78%−5pp
Under 1.527%vs22%+5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs33%
Under 3.5—vs67%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes52%vs59%−7pp
No48%vs41%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Rayo Vallecano

Confirmed · 4-3-3

  • J. de Frutos — out (Red Card)
  • F. Perez — out (Red Card)
  • R. Nteka — out (Muscle Injury)
  • I. Balliu — out (Ankle Injury)
  • M. Kumbulla — out (Muscle Injury)
  • J. Vertrouwd — out (Muscle Injury)
  • I. Palazon — out (Muscle Injury)
  • A. Batalla — out (Broken calfbone)
  • D. Mendez — out (Knee Injury)
  • Luiz Felipe — out (Hamstring Injury)

Racing Santander

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • A. Almeida — out (Red Card)
  • S. Eriksson — out (Shoulder Injury)
  • I. Luque — out (Inactive)
  • Pedro Felipe — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • A. Martin — out (Knee Injury)
  • G. Guliashvili — out (Leg Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Rayo VallecanoLDLWW

  • Mon 31 Aug · A v Barcelona 2–5(xG 1.1–2.8)
  • Thu 20 Aug · H v Alaves 1–1
  • Sat 15 Aug · A v Sevilla 1–2
  • Sat 23 May · A v Alaves 2–1
  • Sun 17 May · H v Villarreal 2–0

Racing SantanderWLD

  • Fri 28 Aug · H v Elche 3–2(xG 1.5–1.1)
  • Sun 23 Aug · A v Getafe 0–1(xG 1.3–1.2)
  • Sun 16 Aug · H v Villarreal 2–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Rayo Vallecano
  • Rayo Vallecano have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Rayo Vallecano have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Rayo Vallecano's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Rayo Vallecano's last 5.
  • Rayo Vallecano kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Racing Santander
  • Racing Santander have won 1 of their last 3.
  • Racing Santander have scored in 2 of their last 3.
  • 2 of Racing Santander's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Racing Santander's last 3.
  • Racing Santander kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Rayo Vallecano

Rest: 5 days · 1 match in 14d

Racing Santander

Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d

Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes · Referee: Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez, Spain

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
Our model makes Rayo Vallecano the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
Rayo Vallecano's reported absences and doubts include J. de Frutos, F. Perez, R. Nteka, I. Balliu and 6 others. Racing Santander's include A. Almeida, S. Eriksson, I. Luque, Pedro Felipe and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
Rayo Vallecano line up in a 4-3-3, Racing Santander in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.