Who will win Lincoln vs Southampton?

Our model makes Lincoln the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market instead favours Southampton at 54%.

Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Southampton?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for Lincoln vs Southampton?

Lincoln's reported absences and doubts include T. Hamer, M. Melia, S. Bradley, T. Darikwa and 2 others. Southampton's include R. Akachukwu, T. Harwood-Bellis, C. Jander. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for Lincoln vs Southampton?

Lincoln line up in a 3-4-3, Southampton in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Championship · Regular Season - 5

LincolnvSouthampton

Sat 5 Sep · 11:30 UTC

1 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Lincoln40% · Match result
Over 1.577% · Goals
Yes56% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Lincoln the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 20% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Southampton the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 22%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Southampton a 54% chance. Our model makes it 33%.

SouthamptonModel 33% [16%–55%]Market 54%

2Market

Open: 23% home · 24% draw · 52% away

Now: 22% home · 23% draw · 54% away

Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Southampton

Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home40%vs22%+18pp

Draw27%vs23%+4pp

Away33%vs54%−21pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs57%

Under 2.5—vs43%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.577%vs79%−2pp

Under 1.523%vs21%+2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs35%

Under 3.5—vs65%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes56%vs58%−2pp

No44%vs42%+2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Lincoln

Confirmed · 3-4-3

T. Hamer — out (Health problems)
M. Melia — out (Thigh Injury)
S. Bradley — out (Knock)
T. Darikwa — out (Knee Injury)
J. Collins — out (Knee Injury)
A. Jackson — out (Surgery)

Southampton

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

R. Akachukwu — doubtful (Injury)
T. Harwood-Bellis — out (Injury)
C. Jander — out (Lacking Match Fitness)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

LincolnDWLL

Tue 1 Sep · H v Blackburn 0–0
Sat 29 Aug · A v Bolton 1–0(xG 1.1–1.5)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Portsmouth 1–3
Sat 15 Aug · A v Middlesbrough 1–2

SouthamptonDWWLL

Tue 1 Sep · A v Birmingham 1–1
Sat 29 Aug · H v Millwall 5–1(xG 3.2–1.1)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Stoke City 3–1
Sun 16 Aug · A v Watford 1–2
Sun 25 May · H v Arsenal 1–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Lincoln

Lincoln have won 1 of their last 4.
Lincoln have scored in 3 of their last 4.
2 of Lincoln's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of Lincoln's last 4.
Lincoln kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.

Southampton

Southampton have won 2 of their last 5.
Southampton have scored in 5 of their last 5.
4 of Southampton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 5 of Southampton's last 5.
Southampton kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Lincoln

Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d

Southampton

Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d

Sincil Bank, Lincoln · Referee: Andrew Kitchen, England

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.

Common questions

Who will win Lincoln vs Southampton?: Our model makes Lincoln the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market instead favours Southampton at 54%.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Southampton?: Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Lincoln vs Southampton?: Lincoln's reported absences and doubts include T. Hamer, M. Melia, S. Bradley, T. Darikwa and 2 others. Southampton's include R. Akachukwu, T. Harwood-Bellis, C. Jander. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Lincoln vs Southampton?: Lincoln line up in a 3-4-3, Southampton in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.