Championship · Regular Season - 5
Sheffield UtdvNorwich
Sheffield Utd
Norwich·
1 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Sheffield Utd49% · Match result
- Over 1.580% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Sheffield Utd the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 37%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Sheffield Utd a 37% chance. Our model makes it 49%.
2Market
Open: 37% home · 27% draw · 36% away
Now: 37% home · 27% draw · 36% away
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sheffield Utd
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- F. Seriki — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Burrows — out (Injury)
- S. McCallum — doubtful (Inactive)
- R. One — out (Hamstring Injury)
- T. Chong — out (Injury)
- J. Shackleton — out (Foot Injury)
- K. Phillips — out (Muscle Injury)
Norwich
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Makama — out (Foot Injury)
- P. Maghoma — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Topic — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Mahovo — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Crnac — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Ahmed — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Gibbs — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Sheffield UtdWDDDL
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Bolton 3–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Cardiff 2–2(xG 1.5–2.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Swansea 0–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Birmingham 0–0
- Sun 19 May · H v Tottenham 0–3
NorwichLWLLL
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Stoke City 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Burnley 4–1(xG 1.9–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Millwall 0–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v West Brom 1–2
- Sun 22 May · H v Tottenham 0–5
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sheffield Utd have won 1 of their last 5.
- Sheffield Utd have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Sheffield Utd's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Sheffield Utd's last 5.
- Sheffield Utd kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Norwich have won 1 of their last 5.
- Norwich have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 4 of Norwich's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Norwich's last 5.
- Norwich kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Sheffield Utd
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Norwich
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Bramall Lane, Sheffield · Referee: Josh Smith, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Sheffield Utd vs Norwich?
- Our model makes Sheffield Utd the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 37%.
- Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Norwich?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sheffield Utd vs Norwich?
- Sheffield Utd's reported absences and doubts include F. Seriki, H. Burrows, S. McCallum, R. One and 3 others. Norwich's include J. Makama, P. Maghoma, M. Topic, L. Mahovo and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sheffield Utd vs Norwich?
- Sheffield Utd line up in a 4-4-2, Norwich in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.