Who will win West Brom vs Watford?

Our model makes West Brom the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.

Will both teams score in West Brom vs Watford?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for West Brom vs Watford?

West Brom's reported absences and doubts include N. Galves, B. Pereira, M. Johnston, T. Bany. Watford's include J. Zemura, B. Mlacic, J. Ngakia, J. Grieves and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for West Brom vs Watford?

West Brom line up in a 4-4-2, Watford in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Championship · Regular Season - 5

West BromvWatford

Sat 5 Sep · 14:00 UTC

1 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

West Brom48% · Match result
Over 1.573% · Goals
Yes51% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes West Brom the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 51%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives West Brom a 51% chance. Our model makes it 48%.

West BromModel 48% [42%–54%]Market 51%

2Market

Open: 50% home · 27% draw · 24% away

Now: 51% home · 26% draw · 23% away

Moved +1pp — the market moved towards West Brom

Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home48%vs51%−3pp

Draw28%vs26%+2pp

Away24%vs23%+1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs50%

Under 2.5—vs50%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.573%vs75%−2pp

Under 1.527%vs25%+2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs28%

Under 3.5—vs72%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes51%vs53%−2pp

No49%vs47%+2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

West Brom

Confirmed · 4-4-2

N. Galves — out (Knee Injury)
B. Pereira — out (Red Card)
M. Johnston — out (Broken Leg)
T. Bany — out (Inactive)

Watford

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

J. Zemura — out (Inactive)
B. Mlacic — out (Inactive)
J. Ngakia — out (Thigh Injury)
J. Grieves — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
E. Bove — out (Knee Injury)
T. Akomeah — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
M. Boadu — out (Injury)
O. H. Traore — out (Injury)
M. Bola — out (Hamstring Injury)
K. Baah — out (Knock)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

West BromDLWW

Wed 2 Sep · H v Charlton 1–1(xG 0.6–0.4)
Sat 29 Aug · A v Middlesbrough 1–3(xG 1.4–2.5)
Sun 23 Aug · H v Burnley 3–1
Sat 15 Aug · A v Norwich 2–1

WatfordLDDWL

Tue 1 Sep · A v Swansea 0–2
Sat 29 Aug · H v West Ham 1–1(xG 1.3–0.7)
Sat 22 Aug · A v Wrexham 1–1
Sun 16 Aug · H v Southampton 2–1
Sun 22 May · A v Chelsea 1–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

West Brom

West Brom have won 2 of their last 4.
West Brom have scored in 4 of their last 4.
3 of West Brom's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 4 of West Brom's last 4.
West Brom kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

Watford

Watford have won 1 of their last 5.
Watford have scored in 4 of their last 5.
2 of Watford's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 4 of Watford's last 5.
Watford kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

West Brom

Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d

Watford

Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d

The Hawthorns, West Bromwich · Referee: Michael Salisbury, England

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.

Common questions

Who will win West Brom vs Watford?: Our model makes West Brom the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Watford?: Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for West Brom vs Watford?: West Brom's reported absences and doubts include N. Galves, B. Pereira, M. Johnston, T. Bany. Watford's include J. Zemura, B. Mlacic, J. Ngakia, J. Grieves and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for West Brom vs Watford?: West Brom line up in a 4-4-2, Watford in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.