Who will win Preston vs Blackburn?

Our model makes Preston the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.

Will both teams score in Preston vs Blackburn?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for Preston vs Blackburn?

Preston's reported absences and doubts include B. Potts, T. Carroll, A. Hughes, A. McCann and 1 other. Blackburn's include M. Jorgensen, Y. Ribeiro, A. Forshaw, S. Wharton and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for Preston vs Blackburn?

Preston line up in a 3-4-1-2, Blackburn in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Championship · Regular Season - 5

PrestonvBlackburn

Sat 5 Sep · 11:30 UTC

2 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Preston38% · Match result
Over 1.574% · Goals
Yes53% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Preston the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 44%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 38%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Preston a 38% chance. Our model makes it 38%.

PrestonModel 38% [33%–44%]Market 38%

2Market

Open: 39% home · 29% draw · 32% away

Now: 38% home · 29% draw · 32% away

Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Preston

Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home38%vs38%0pp

Draw29%vs29%0pp

Away33%vs32%+1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs45%

Under 2.5—vs55%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs69%+5pp

Under 1.526%vs31%−5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs24%

Under 3.5—vs76%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes53%vs51%+2pp

No47%vs49%−2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Preston

Confirmed · 3-4-1-2

B. Potts — out (Ankle Injury)
T. Carroll — out (Ankle Injury)
A. Hughes — out (Inactive)
A. McCann — out (Injury)
L. Gibson — out (Red Card)

Blackburn

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

M. Jorgensen — out (Hamstring Injury)
Y. Ribeiro — out (Injury)
A. Forshaw — out (Injury)
S. Wharton — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
H. Pickering — out (Inactive)
M. Litherland — out (Muscle Injury)
T. Atcheson — out (Red Card)
Y. Ohashi — out (Inactive)
L. Miller — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
A. Kargbo — out (Muscle Injury)
D. De Neve — out (Injury)
M. Baradji — out (Hamstring Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

PrestonLLLL

Tue 1 Sep · H v Bristol City 1–3
Sat 29 Aug · A v Charlton 0–1(xG 0.9–0.9)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Wolves 1–3
Sat 15 Aug · A v Bolton 1–2

BlackburnDLWD

Tue 1 Sep · A v Lincoln 0–0
Sat 29 Aug · H v QPR 1–2(xG 1.0–1.3)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Middlesbrough 2–1
Fri 14 Aug · A v Wolves 2–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Preston

Preston have won 0 of their last 4.
Preston have scored in 3 of their last 4.
3 of Preston's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of Preston's last 4.
Preston kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

Blackburn

Blackburn have won 1 of their last 4.
Blackburn have scored in 3 of their last 4.
3 of Blackburn's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of Blackburn's last 4.
Blackburn kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Preston

Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d

Blackburn

Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d

Deepdale, Preston · Referee: Anthony Backhouse, England

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.

Common questions

Who will win Preston vs Blackburn?: Our model makes Preston the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Blackburn?: Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Preston vs Blackburn?: Preston's reported absences and doubts include B. Potts, T. Carroll, A. Hughes, A. McCann and 1 other. Blackburn's include M. Jorgensen, Y. Ribeiro, A. Forshaw, S. Wharton and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Preston vs Blackburn?: Preston line up in a 3-4-1-2, Blackburn in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.