Championship · Regular Season - 5
West HamvDerby
West Ham
Derby·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- West Ham65% · Match result
- Over 1.579% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 2.05 at BetanoThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 53% against a market price of 46% — 7 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 9 matches between them averaged 3.3 goals, and 3.0 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 6 of those 9.
- 18 players reported unavailable — 7 for West Ham, 11 for Derby.
Our forecast makes West Ham the most likely of the three results, at 65% (we would not be surprised by anything from 54% to 75%). Most likely is not likely: at 65% this result does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 71%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives West Ham a 71% chance. Our model makes it 65%.
2Market
Open: 71% home · 18% draw · 11% away
Now: 71% home · 19% draw · 11% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards the draw
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
West Ham
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- J. Veltman — out (Injury)
- T. Castellanos — out (Injury)
- A. Areola — out (Calf Injury)
- T. Soucek — out (Ankle Injury)
- Pablo — out (Health problems)
- K. Mavropanos — out (Inactive)
- K. Lamadrid — out (Knee Injury)
Derby
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- L. Travis — out (Leg Injury)
- C. Morris — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Widell Zetterstrom — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Meister — out (Injury)
- F. Bilbija — out (Back Injury)
- C. Forsyth — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Brewster — out (Injury)
- M. Clarke — out (Calf Injury)
- S. Szmodics — out (Thigh Injury)
- D. Murkin — out (Hamstring Injury)
- P. Agyemang — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
West HamWDLDW
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Wolves 4–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Watford 1–1(xG 0.7–1.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Charlton 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Burnley 2–2
- Sun 24 May · H v Leeds 3–0
DerbyWLDL
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Portsmouth 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Swansea 0–3(xG 0.6–3.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Cardiff 2–2
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Charlton 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- West Ham have won 2 of their last 5.
- West Ham have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of West Ham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of West Ham's last 5.
- West Ham kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Derby have won 1 of their last 4.
- Derby have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of Derby's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Derby's last 4.
- Derby kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
West Ham
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Derby
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
London Stadium, London · Referee: Oliver Langford, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win West Ham vs Derby?
- Our model makes West Ham the most likely result at 65%. Most likely is not likely — at 65% it does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 71%.
- Will both teams score in West Ham vs Derby?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for West Ham vs Derby?
- West Ham's reported absences and doubts include J. Veltman, T. Castellanos, A. Areola, T. Soucek and 3 others. Derby's include L. Travis, C. Morris, J. Widell Zetterstrom, H. Meister and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for West Ham vs Derby?
- West Ham line up in a 4-4-2, Derby in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.