Championship · Regular Season - 5

BurnleyvBristol City

·

1 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

  • Burnley55% · Match result
  • Over 1.576% · Goals
  • Yes54% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Burnley the most likely of the three results, at 55% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 55% this result does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 51%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Burnley a 51% chance. Our model makes it 55%.

BurnleyModel 55% [45%–64%]Market 51%
Burnley:, our forecast 55%, between 45% and 64%, market 51%

2Market

Open: 53% home · 25% draw · 22% away

Now: 51% home · 26% draw · 23% away

Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Burnley

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home55%vs51%+4pp
Draw25%vs26%−1pp
Away20%vs23%−3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs52%
Under 2.5—vs48%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.576%vs76%0pp
Under 1.524%vs24%0pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs30%
Under 3.5—vs70%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes54%vs54%0pp
No46%vs46%0pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Burnley

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • A. Ramsey — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • H. Mejbri — out (Inactive)
  • J. Bruun Larsen — out (Injury)
  • D. Satpaev — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • L. Foster — out (Inactive)
  • O. Sonne — doubtful (Inactive)
  • Lucas Pires — out (Inactive)
  • J. Laurent — out (Red Card)
  • B. Humphreys — out (Inactive)
  • J. Cullen — out (Knee Injury)
  • J. Beyer — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • A. Barnes — out (Injury)
  • J. Banel — out (Injury)
  • E. Agyei — out (Injury)

Bristol City

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • R. Dickie — out (Injury)
  • B. De Keersmaecker — out (Shoulder Injury)
  • G. Tanner — doubtful (Knock)
  • E. Adebayo — out (Inactive)
  • A. Randell — out (Red Card)
  • C. Pring — out (Ankle Injury)
  • O. Thomas — out (Injury)
  • L. McNally — out (Knee Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

BurnleyDLLDD

  • Wed 2 Sep · H v Middlesbrough 1–1(xG 0.6–1.2)
  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Norwich 1–4(xG 0.9–1.9)
  • Sun 23 Aug · A v West Brom 1–3
  • Sun 16 Aug · H v West Ham 2–2
  • Sun 24 May · H v Wolves 1–1

Bristol CityWWDL

  • Tue 1 Sep · A v Preston 3–1
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v Portsmouth 2–1(xG 0.6–1.4)
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Birmingham 2–2
  • Sat 15 Aug · H v Millwall 0–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Burnley
  • Burnley have won 0 of their last 5.
  • Burnley have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Burnley's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 5 of Burnley's last 5.
  • Burnley kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
Bristol City
  • Bristol City have won 2 of their last 4.
  • Bristol City have scored in 3 of their last 4.
  • 3 of Bristol City's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Bristol City's last 4.
  • Bristol City kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Burnley

Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d

Bristol City

Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d

Turf Moor, Burnley · Referee: Gavin Ward, England

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our model makes Burnley the most likely result at 55%. Most likely is not likely — at 55% it does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Burnley vs Bristol City?
Burnley's reported absences and doubts include A. Ramsey, H. Mejbri, J. Bruun Larsen, D. Satpaev and 10 others. Bristol City's include R. Dickie, B. De Keersmaecker, G. Tanner, E. Adebayo and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Burnley vs Bristol City?
Burnley line up in a 4-2-3-1, Bristol City in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.