Championship · Regular Season - 5
MillwallvBolton
Millwall
Bolton·
4 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Millwall37% · Match result
- Over 1.572% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Millwall the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 19% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 50%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Millwall a 50% chance. Our model makes it 37%.
2Market
Open: 51% home · 28% draw · 21% away
Now: 50% home · 28% draw · 22% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Bolton
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Millwall
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Lisbie — out (Injury)
- L. Jensen — out (Injury)
- T. Crama — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Esse — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Leonard — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Luongo — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Sykes — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Metcalfe — out (Red Card)
- C. De Norre — out (Injury)
- J. Coburn — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Cundle — out (Inactive)
- F. Azeez — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Servais — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Mazou-Sacko — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Ivanovic — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Doughty — out (Hamstring Injury)
Bolton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- L. Stephenson — out (Injury)
- C. Forino-Joseph — out (Groin Injury)
- L. Brunt — out (Injury)
- J. Sheehan — out (Red Card)
- X. Simons — out (Red Card)
- R. Rodrigues — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MillwallLLWW
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Wrexham 0–3(xG 0.2–0.9)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Southampton 1–5(xG 1.1–3.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Norwich 3–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Bristol City 2–0
BoltonLLDW
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Sheffield Utd 2–3
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Lincoln 0–1(xG 1.5–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v QPR 0–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Preston 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Millwall have won 2 of their last 4.
- Millwall have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of Millwall's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Millwall's last 4.
- Millwall kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
- Bolton have won 1 of their last 4.
- Bolton have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 2 of Bolton's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Bolton's last 4.
- Bolton kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Millwall
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Bolton
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
The Den, London · Referee: Will Finnie, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Millwall vs Bolton?
- Our model makes Millwall the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Millwall vs Bolton?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Millwall vs Bolton?
- Millwall's reported absences and doubts include K. Lisbie, L. Jensen, T. Crama, R. Esse and 12 others. Bolton's include L. Stephenson, C. Forino-Joseph, L. Brunt, J. Sheehan and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Millwall vs Bolton?
- Millwall line up in a 4-2-3-1, Bolton in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.