Liga MX · Apertura - 7
FC JuarezvCF Pachuca
FC Juarez
CF Pachuca·
0 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- CF Pachuca40% · Match result
- Over 1.574% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes CF Pachuca the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives CF Pachuca a 48% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 25% home · 27% draw · 47% away
Now: 25% home · 27% draw · 48% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards CF Pachuca
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Juarez
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
CF Pachuca
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC JuarezLLLLL
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Toluca 0–4
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Club America 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Monterrey 1–6
- Sat 1 Aug · H v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–5
- Sat 25 Jul · A v Guadalajara Chivas 0–1
CF PachucaDDLLL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Guadalajara Chivas 1–1(xG 1.5–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atletico San Luis 1–1
- Tue 18 Aug · H v Puebla 2–3
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Leon 0–1
- Mon 27 Jul · H v Club Queretaro 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Juarez have won 0 of their last 5.
- FC Juarez have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Juarez's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Juarez's last 5.
- FC Juarez kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- CF Pachuca have won 0 of their last 5.
- CF Pachuca have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of CF Pachuca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of CF Pachuca's last 5.
- CF Pachuca kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Juarez
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
CF Pachuca
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez, Ciudad Juarez · Referee: Katia García, Mexico
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca?
- Our model makes CF Pachuca the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- Will both teams score in FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca?
- FC Juarez line up in a 4-2-3-1, CF Pachuca in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.