Liga MX · Apertura - 7
Atletico San LuisvGuadalajara Chivas
Atletico San Luis
Guadalajara Chivas·
0 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Guadalajara Chivas50% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Guadalajara Chivas the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 66%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 53%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Guadalajara Chivas a 53% chance. Our model makes it 50%.
2Market
Open: 22% home · 25% draw · 53% away
Now: 22% home · 25% draw · 53% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Atletico San Luis
Confirmed · 5-4-1
No reported absences.
Guadalajara Chivas
Confirmed · 3-4-1-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Atletico San LuisWDLDD
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Monterrey 3–1(xG 1.3–2.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v CF Pachuca 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Club America 0–3
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Club Tijuana 0–0
- Sun 26 Jul · A v Tigres UANL 2–2
Guadalajara ChivasDWWDW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v CF Pachuca 1–1(xG 1.4–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Club Tijuana 5–2
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Santos Laguna 1–0
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Puebla 1–1
- Sat 25 Jul · H v FC Juarez 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Atletico San Luis have won 1 of their last 5.
- Atletico San Luis have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Atletico San Luis's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atletico San Luis's last 5.
- Atletico San Luis kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Guadalajara Chivas have won 3 of their last 5.
- Guadalajara Chivas have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 1 of Guadalajara Chivas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Guadalajara Chivas's last 5.
- Guadalajara Chivas kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Atletico San Luis
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Guadalajara Chivas
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Alfonso Lastras Ramirez, San Luis de Potosi · Referee: Jorge Abraham Camacho Peregrina, Mexico
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas?
- Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas?
- Atletico San Luis line up in a 5-4-1, Guadalajara Chivas in a 3-4-1-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.