Premier League · Regular Season - 3
NewcastlevBournemouth
Newcastle
Bournemouth·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Newcastle43% · Match result
- Over 1.582% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Newcastle the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 46%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Newcastle a 46% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 25% draw · 30% away
Now: 46% home · 25% draw · 29% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Newcastle
Solid: the market over 12 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Newcastle
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Joelinton — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Ramsey — out (Injury)
- Nico — out (Injury)
- A. Elanga — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Dedic — out (Injury)
- E. Jaouen — out (Ankle Injury)
- V. Livramento — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Fernandez-Pardo — out (Transfer negotiations)
- W. Osula — out (Injury)
- D. Burn — out (Ankle Injury)
Bournemouth
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Adli — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Kluivert — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Soler — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- V. Milosavljevic — out (Injury)
- E. J. Kroupi — out (Foot Injury)
- R. Christie — out (Red Card)
- J. Araujo — out (Thigh Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
NewcastleWDLWD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Tottenham 2–0(xG 0.8–1.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Liverpool 2–2(xG 1.6–3.0)
- Sun 24 May · A v Fulham 0–2
- Sun 17 May · H v West Ham 3–1
- Sun 10 May · A v Nottingham Forest 1–1
BournemouthDLDDW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Everton 1–1(xG 2.1–1.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Manchester City 1–2(xG 0.7–2.3)
- Sun 24 May · A v Nottingham Forest 1–1
- Tue 19 May · H v Manchester City 1–1
- Sat 9 May · A v Fulham 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Newcastle have won 2 of their last 5.
- Newcastle have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Newcastle's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Newcastle's last 5.
- Newcastle kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Bournemouth have won 1 of their last 5.
- Bournemouth have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 1 of Bournemouth's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Bournemouth's last 5.
- Bournemouth kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Newcastle have won 0, Bournemouth 3, with 5 drawn.
- Newcastle W–D–L
- 0–5–3
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 8
- Both scored
- 6 of 8
- Newcastle 1–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 0–0 Newcastle
- Newcastle 1–4 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 1–1 Newcastle
- Newcastle 2–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 2–0 Newcastle
- Bournemouth 1–1 Newcastle
- Newcastle 1–1 Bournemouth
7Context
Newcastle
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Bournemouth
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
St James’ Park, Newcastle · Referee: Robert Jones, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
- Our model makes Newcastle the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
- Newcastle's reported absences and doubts include Joelinton, J. Ramsey, Nico, A. Elanga and 6 others. Bournemouth's include A. Adli, J. Kluivert, J. Soler, V. Milosavljevic and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
- Newcastle line up in a 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
- In their last 8 meetings, Newcastle have won 0, Bournemouth 3, with 5 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.