Premier League · Regular Season - 3
Manchester CityvCoventry
Manchester City
Coventry·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Manchester City80% · Match result
- Over 1.585% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 1.96 at MarathonbetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 54% against a market price of 47% — 7 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 7 matches between them averaged 2.9 goals, and 2.3 expected across the 3 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 4 of those 7.
- 15 players reported unavailable — 6 for Manchester City, 9 for Coventry.
- The price has moved 2.3% towards Manchester City since it opened.
Our forecast makes Manchester City the most likely of the three results, at 80% (we would not be surprised by anything from 72% to 86%). Most likely is not likely: at 80% this result does not happen 20% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 85%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Manchester City a 85% chance. Our model makes it 80%.
2Market
Open: 83% home · 12% draw · 6% away
Now: 85% home · 10% draw · 5% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Manchester City
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Manchester City
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Foden — out (Red Card)
- M. Nunes — out (Injury)
- J. Doku — out (Calf Injury)
- E. Fernandez — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- Allan Elias — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Savinho — out (Transfer negotiations)
Coventry
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- T. Awoniyi — out (Red Card)
- A. Amenda — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Eccles — out (Injury)
- Y. Gboho — out (Transfer negotiations)
- F. Onyeka — doubtful (Inactive)
- S. Mfuni — out (Loan agreement)
- K. Kesler-Hayden — out (Muscle Injury)
- H. Wright — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Woolfenden — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Manchester CityWWLDW
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Crystal Palace 4–1(xG 1.4–0.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Bournemouth 2–1(xG 2.3–0.7)
- Sun 24 May · H v Aston Villa 1–2
- Tue 19 May · A v Bournemouth 1–1
- Wed 13 May · H v Crystal Palace 3–0
CoventryLL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Hull City 0–1(xG 1.3–0.7)
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Arsenal 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Manchester City have won 3 of their last 5.
- Manchester City have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Manchester City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Manchester City's last 5.
- Manchester City kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Coventry have won 0 of their last 2.
- Coventry have scored in 0 of their last 2.
- 1 of Coventry's last 2 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Coventry's last 2.
- Coventry kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 2.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Manchester City
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Coventry
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Etihad Stadium, Manchester · Referee: Paul Tierney, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Manchester City vs Coventry?
- Our model makes Manchester City the most likely result at 80%. Most likely is not likely — at 80% it does not happen 20% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 85%.
- Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Coventry?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Manchester City vs Coventry?
- Manchester City's reported absences and doubts include P. Foden, M. Nunes, J. Doku, E. Fernandez and 2 others. Coventry's include T. Awoniyi, A. Amenda, J. Eccles, Y. Gboho and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Manchester City vs Coventry?
- Manchester City line up in a 4-2-3-1, Coventry in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.