Published forecasts

Every forecast we have published, in the order we published it. Each row carries a hash of itself and the row before, so changing a probability after a match has been played would break every hash after it. That is what stops us quietly revising a number and claiming we always said it — and you do not have to take our word for the check, it runs when you load this page.

The published forecasts for Manchester City v Coventry

These are the forecasts we published for this fixture, hash-chained so a number we wrote before kick-off cannot be quietly changed afterwards.

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Chain intact across all 2034 published forecasts.

Daily seals

At the end of each day we write that day's final hash to separate storage. The chain alone would catch a single altered forecast, but not a wholesale rebuild from edited rows — evidence kept in the same place as the thing it attests to proves less than it appears to. Note a seal today and you can hold us to it later.

#PublishedMatchH / D / AResultHash
10052026-09-04 01:06Manchester City vCoventry80% / 13% / 7%our call landedwe called home 80% · home winfd402d73d278…
9552026-09-04 00:06Manchester City vCoventry80% / 13% / 7%our call landedwe called home 80% · home winc5f4c2a5edf7…
7392026-09-03 04:06Manchester City vCoventry84% / 11% / 5%our call landedwe called home 84% · home win4751d9ab2a1a…
5802026-09-02 12:07Manchester City vCoventry84% / 11% / 5%our call landedwe called home 84% · home win48e8e2179795…
5132026-09-01 18:06Manchester City vCoventry83% / 12% / 5%our call landedwe called home 83% · home win43b323389d00…

The result column pairs the outcome we called (our most-likely of home / draw / away, with its probability) against what actually happened — a verdict, not a score: a 60% call missing is not a failure. Whether the probabilities are any good is a separate question, answered on the accuracy page. This page only shows that we have not changed our mind about them afterwards.