Premier League · Regular Season - 3
FulhamvCrystal Palace
Fulham
Crystal Palace·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Fulham41% · Match result
- Over 1.576% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Fulham the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Fulham a 43% chance. Our model makes it 41%.
2Market
Open: 42% home · 28% draw · 31% away
Now: 43% home · 28% draw · 29% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Crystal Palace
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Fulham
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Tete — out (Concussion)
- Manuel Angel — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- L. De Fougerolles — out (Injury)
- H. Larsson — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- T. Cairney — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Andersen — out (Red Card)
Crystal Palace
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- I. Sarr — out (Groin Injury)
- D. Henderson — out (Foot Injury)
- A. Disasi — out (Red Card)
- E. Nketiah — out (Injury)
- H. Ahanor — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- B. Chilwell — doubtful (Hamstring Injury)
- C. Riad — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Mateta — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FulhamLLWDL
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Sunderland 0–1(xG 0.8–1.8)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Chelsea 2–3(xG 1.3–2.2)
- Sun 24 May · H v Newcastle 2–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Wolves 1–1
- Sat 9 May · H v Bournemouth 0–1
Crystal PalaceLLLDL
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Manchester City 1–4(xG 0.6–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Everton 0–2
- Sun 24 May · H v Arsenal 1–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Brentford 2–2
- Wed 13 May · A v Manchester City 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Fulham have won 1 of their last 5.
- Fulham have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Fulham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Fulham's last 5.
- Fulham kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Crystal Palace have won 0 of their last 5.
- Crystal Palace have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Crystal Palace's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Crystal Palace's last 5.
- Crystal Palace kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Fulham have won 2, Crystal Palace 2, with 4 drawn.
- Fulham W–D–L
- 2–4–2
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 8
- Both scored
- 4 of 8
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Fulham
- Fulham 1–2 Crystal Palace
- Fulham 0–2 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 0–2 Fulham
- Fulham 1–1 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Fulham
- Fulham 2–2 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Fulham
7Context
Fulham
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Crystal Palace
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Craven Cottage, London · Referee: Samuel Barrott, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
- Our model makes Fulham the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
- Fulham's reported absences and doubts include K. Tete, Manuel Angel, L. De Fougerolles, H. Larsson and 2 others. Crystal Palace's include I. Sarr, D. Henderson, A. Disasi, E. Nketiah and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
- Fulham line up in a 4-2-3-1, Crystal Palace in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
- In their last 8 meetings, Fulham have won 2, Crystal Palace 2, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.