Premier League · Regular Season - 3
Hull CityvAston Villa
Hull City
Aston Villa·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Aston Villa66% · Match result
- Over 1.581% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Aston Villa
Best price 1.94 at 1xBetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 66% against a market price of 51% — 15 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 75% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- 30 players reported unavailable — 14 for Hull City, 16 for Aston Villa.
Our forecast makes Aston Villa the most likely of the three results, at 66% (we would not be surprised by anything from 55% to 76%). Most likely is not likely: at 66% this result does not happen 34% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 51%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Aston Villa a 51% chance. Our model makes it 66%.
2Market
Open: 23% home · 26% draw · 51% away
Now: 23% home · 26% draw · 51% away
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Hull City
Confirmed · 5-4-1
- M. Targett — out (Ankle Injury)
- N. Mendy — out (Injury)
- P. McNair — out (Foot Injury)
- T. Iroegbunam — doubtful (Inactive)
- M. Crooks — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Ansah — out (Back Injury)
- J. Gelhardt — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Jacob — out (Hip Injury)
- O. Zambrano — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. Morita — out (Calf Injury)
- E. Matazo — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Hughes — out (Groin Injury)
- D. Gyabi — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Butland — out (Arm Injury)
Aston Villa
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Torres — out (Injury)
- I. Maatsen — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Bizot — out (Back Injury)
- Alysson — out (Injury)
- M. Cash — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Goretzka — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Madjo — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Bailey — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Harwood-Bellis — doubtful (Injury)
- I. Mbaye — out (Inactive)
- T. Abraham — out (Injury)
- O. Watkins — out (Inactive)
- E. Martinez — out (Finger Injury)
- Joao Gomes — out (Red Card)
- A. Onana — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Manzambi — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Hull CityWW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Coventry 1–0(xG 0.7–1.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Manchester United 2–0
Aston VillaLLWWD
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Arsenal 0–1(xG 0.3–1.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Brighton 0–4(xG 0.3–3.8)
- Sun 24 May · A v Manchester City 2–1
- Fri 15 May · H v Liverpool 4–2
- Sun 10 May · A v Burnley 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Hull City have won 2 of their last 2.
- Hull City have scored in 2 of their last 2.
- 0 of Hull City's last 2 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Hull City's last 2.
- Hull City kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 2.
- Aston Villa have won 2 of their last 5.
- Aston Villa have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Aston Villa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Aston Villa's last 5.
- Aston Villa kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Hull City
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Aston Villa
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
MKM Stadium, Hull · Referee: Michael Oliver, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Hull City vs Aston Villa?
- Our model makes Aston Villa the most likely result at 66%. Most likely is not likely — at 66% it does not happen 34% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Hull City vs Aston Villa?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Hull City vs Aston Villa?
- Hull City's reported absences and doubts include M. Targett, N. Mendy, P. McNair, T. Iroegbunam and 10 others. Aston Villa's include P. Torres, I. Maatsen, M. Bizot, Alysson and 12 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Hull City vs Aston Villa?
- Hull City line up in a 5-4-1, Aston Villa in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.