Premier League · Regular Season - 3
BrentfordvSunderland
Brentford
Sunderland·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Brentford60% · Match result
- Over 1.577% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Brentford the most likely of the three results, at 60% (we would not be surprised by anything from 50% to 69%). Most likely is not likely: at 60% this result does not happen 40% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 59%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Brentford a 59% chance. Our model makes it 60%.
2Market
Open: 60% home · 23% draw · 16% away
Now: 59% home · 24% draw · 17% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Brentford
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Brentford
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Jensen — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Milambo — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Furo — out (Surgery)
- N. Collins — out (Injury)
- J. Dasilva — out (Injury)
- S. van den Berg — out (Injury)
Sunderland
Confirmed · 5-4-1
- R. Mandava — out (Red Card)
- R. Mundle — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Diarra — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Adingra — out (Foot Injury)
- D. Methalie — out (Yellow Cards)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BrentfordDWDDL
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Leeds 1–1(xG 1.6–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Tottenham 3–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Liverpool 1–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Crystal Palace 2–2
- Sat 9 May · A v Manchester City 0–3
SunderlandWLWWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Fulham 1–0(xG 1.8–0.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Ipswich 1–2
- Sun 24 May · H v Chelsea 2–1
- Sun 17 May · A v Everton 3–1
- Sat 9 May · H v Manchester United 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Brentford have won 1 of their last 5.
- Brentford have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Brentford's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Brentford's last 5.
- Brentford kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Sunderland have won 3 of their last 5.
- Sunderland have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Sunderland's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sunderland's last 5.
- Sunderland kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Brentford have won 1, Sunderland 1, with 0 drawn.
- Brentford W–D–L
- 1–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 2
- Both scored
- 1 of 2
- Brentford 3–0 Sunderland
- Sunderland 2–1 Brentford
7Context
Brentford
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sunderland
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Brentford Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex · Referee: Thomas Bramall, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Brentford vs Sunderland?
- Our model makes Brentford the most likely result at 60%. Most likely is not likely — at 60% it does not happen 40% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 59%.
- Will both teams score in Brentford vs Sunderland?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Brentford vs Sunderland?
- Brentford's reported absences and doubts include M. Jensen, A. Milambo, K. Furo, N. Collins and 2 others. Sunderland's include R. Mandava, R. Mundle, H. Diarra, S. Adingra and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Brentford vs Sunderland?
- Brentford line up in a 4-2-3-1, Sunderland in a 5-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Sunderland?
- In their last 2 meetings, Brentford have won 1, Sunderland 1, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.