Premier League · Regular Season - 3
Nottingham ForestvTottenham
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Nottingham Forest47% · Match result
- Over 1.577% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Nottingham Forest the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 40%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Nottingham Forest a 40% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 39% home · 28% draw · 34% away
Now: 40% home · 28% draw · 33% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Nottingham Forest
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Milenkovic — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Sangare — out (Calf Injury)
- R. Yates — out (Injury)
- N. Savona — out (Knee Injury)
Tottenham
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. M. Sarr — out (Muscle Injury)
- Richarlison — out (Inactive)
- M. Mudryk — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Maddison — out (Knock)
- Savinho — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- M. Kudus — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. van de Ven — out (Injury)
- X. Simons — out (Knee Injury)
- P. Porro — out (Inactive)
- W. Odobert — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Kulusevski — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Nottingham ForestDLDLD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Liverpool 2–2(xG 2.3–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Leeds 0–1
- Sun 24 May · H v Bournemouth 1–1
- Sun 17 May · A v Manchester United 2–3
- Sun 10 May · H v Newcastle 1–1
TottenhamLLWLD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Newcastle 0–2(xG 1.0–0.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Brentford 0–3
- Sun 24 May · H v Everton 1–0
- Tue 19 May · A v Chelsea 1–2
- Mon 11 May · H v Leeds 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Nottingham Forest have won 0 of their last 5.
- Nottingham Forest have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Nottingham Forest's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Nottingham Forest's last 5.
- Nottingham Forest kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Tottenham have won 1 of their last 5.
- Tottenham have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Tottenham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Tottenham's last 5.
- Tottenham kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 4, Tottenham 4, with 0 drawn.
- Nottingham Forest W–D–L
- 4–0–4
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 8
- Both scored
- 3 of 8
- Tottenham 0–3 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 3–0 Tottenham
- Tottenham 1–2 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 1–0 Tottenham
- Tottenham 3–1 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 0–2 Tottenham
- Tottenham 3–1 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 0–2 Tottenham
7Context
Nottingham Forest
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Tottenham
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
City Ground, Nottingham · Referee: Craig Pawson, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?
- Our model makes Nottingham Forest the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?
- Nottingham Forest's reported absences and doubts include N. Milenkovic, I. Sangare, R. Yates, N. Savona. Tottenham's include P. M. Sarr, Richarlison, M. Mudryk, J. Maddison and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?
- Nottingham Forest line up in a 3-4-2-1, Tottenham in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Tottenham?
- In their last 8 meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 4, Tottenham 4, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.