Premier League · Regular Season - 3
BrightonvLeeds
Brighton
Leeds·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Brighton50% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Brighton the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Brighton a 48% chance. Our model makes it 50%.
2Market
Open: 50% home · 26% draw · 24% away
Now: 48% home · 27% draw · 25% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Brighton
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Brighton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Z. Yohanna — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- G. Rutter — out (Injury)
- M. Wieffer — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Svoboda — out (Injury)
- F. Azeez — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Orozco — out (Injury)
- J. Hinshelwood — out (Injury)
- S. Tzimas — out (Knee Injury)
- M. O'Riley — out (Illness)
- K. Mitoma — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Y. Minteh — out (Injury)
- E. Ferguson — out (Ankle Injury)
- C. Baleba — out (Ankle Injury)
Leeds
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- H. Wilson — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Rodon — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Gudmundsson — out (Hamstring Injury)
- W. Gnonto — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. Gruev — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Joseph — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BrightonLWLLW
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Chelsea 3–4(xG 1.6–3.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Aston Villa 4–0(xG 3.8–0.3)
- Sun 24 May · H v Manchester United 0–3
- Sun 17 May · A v Leeds 0–1
- Sat 9 May · H v Wolves 3–0
LeedsDWLWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Brentford 1–1(xG 1.5–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Nottingham Forest 1–0
- Sun 24 May · A v West Ham 0–3
- Sun 17 May · H v Brighton 1–0
- Mon 11 May · A v Tottenham 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Brighton have won 2 of their last 5.
- Brighton have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Brighton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Brighton's last 5.
- Brighton kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Leeds have won 2 of their last 5.
- Leeds have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Leeds's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Leeds's last 5.
- Leeds kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Brighton have won 2, Leeds 1, with 3 drawn.
- Brighton W–D–L
- 2–3–1
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 6
- Both scored
- 2 of 6
- Leeds 1–0 Brighton
- Brighton 3–0 Leeds
- Leeds 2–2 Brighton
- Brighton 1–0 Leeds
- Leeds 1–1 Brighton
- Brighton 0–0 Leeds
7Context
Brighton
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Leeds
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
American Express Stadium, Falmer · Referee: Stuart Attwell, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Brighton vs Leeds?
- Our model makes Brighton the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Brighton vs Leeds?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Brighton vs Leeds?
- Brighton's reported absences and doubts include Z. Yohanna, G. Rutter, M. Wieffer, M. Svoboda and 9 others. Leeds's include H. Wilson, J. Rodon, G. Gudmundsson, W. Gnonto and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Brighton vs Leeds?
- Brighton line up in a 4-2-3-1, Leeds in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Leeds?
- In their last 6 meetings, Brighton have won 2, Leeds 1, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.