Serie A · Regular Season - 3
FiorentinavTorino
Fiorentina
Torino·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Fiorentina48% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Fiorentina the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 50%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Fiorentina a 50% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 50% home · 28% draw · 22% away
Now: 50% home · 28% draw · 22% away
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Fiorentina
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- C. Inao Oulai — doubtful (Injury)
- F. Croci — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Kean — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Sottil — out (Back Injury)
- F. Parisi — out (Knee Injury)
Torino
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- C. Adams — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Casadei — out (Rest)
- R. Belghali — out (Injury)
- C. Biraghi — out (Illness)
- P. Pellegri — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Israel — out (Shoulder Injury)
- E. Comert — out (Red Card)
- F. Anjorin — out (Hip Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FiorentinaLLDWD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Frosinone 0–3(xG 1.9–1.1)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v AS Roma 0–4(xG 0.3–3.1)
- Fri 22 May · H v Atalanta 1–1
- Sun 17 May · A v Juventus 2–0
- Sun 10 May · H v Genoa 0–0
TorinoLLDLW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Sassuolo 1–2(xG 1.1–1.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v AC Milan 1–2(xG 1.3–2.1)
- Sun 24 May · H v Juventus 2–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Cagliari 1–2
- Fri 8 May · H v Sassuolo 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Fiorentina have won 1 of their last 5.
- Fiorentina have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Fiorentina's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Fiorentina's last 5.
- Fiorentina kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Torino have won 1 of their last 5.
- Torino have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Torino's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Torino's last 5.
- Torino kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Fiorentina have won 3, Torino 2, with 5 drawn.
- Fiorentina W–D–L
- 3–5–2
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 10
- Both scored
- 4 of 10
- Fiorentina 2–2 Torino
- Torino 0–0 Fiorentina
- Fiorentina 1–1 Torino
- Torino 0–1 Fiorentina
- Torino 0–0 Fiorentina
- Fiorentina 1–0 Torino
- Torino 1–1 Fiorentina
- Fiorentina 0–1 Torino
- Torino 4–0 Fiorentina
- Fiorentina 2–1 Torino
7Context
Fiorentina
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Torino
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze · Referee: Davide Massa, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Fiorentina vs Torino?
- Our model makes Fiorentina the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Torino?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Fiorentina vs Torino?
- Fiorentina's reported absences and doubts include C. Inao Oulai, F. Croci, M. Kean, R. Sottil and 1 other. Torino's include C. Adams, C. Casadei, R. Belghali, C. Biraghi and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Fiorentina vs Torino?
- Fiorentina line up in a 4-3-3, Torino in a 3-5-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Torino?
- In their last 10 meetings, Fiorentina have won 3, Torino 2, with 5 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.