Serie A · Regular Season - 3
IntervNapoli
Inter
Napoli·
3 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Inter51% · Match result
- Over 1.577% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 1.91 at Bet365The number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 55% against a market price of 50% — 5 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.1 goals, and 3.3 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 5 of those 10.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 2.9 goals.
- 16 players reported unavailable — 5 for Inter, 11 for Napoli.
Our forecast makes Inter the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 46% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 58%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Inter a 58% chance. Our model makes it 51%.
2Market
Open: 58% home · 25% draw · 17% away
Now: 58% home · 25% draw · 17% away
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Inter
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- M. Spinacce — out (Inactive)
- D. Spence — out (Injury)
- J. Stones — out (Injury)
- H. Calhanoglu — out (Muscle Injury)
- H. Mkhitaryan — out (Suspended)
Napoli
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- L. Spinazzola — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Meret — out (Muscle Injury)
- Alisson Santos — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Anguissa — out (Muscle Injury)
- Giovane — out (Groin Injury)
- B. Badiashile — doubtful (Lacking Match Fitness)
- S. McTominay — out (Heart Problems)
- P. Mazzocchi — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Marianucci — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Folorunsho — out (Inactive)
- A. Buongiorno — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
InterWWDDW
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Cagliari 1–0(xG 3.8–0.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Monza 4–1
- Sat 23 May · A v Bologna 3–3
- Sun 17 May · H v Hellas Verona 1–1
- Sat 9 May · A v Lazio 3–0
NapoliLWWWL
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Como 1–2(xG 1.4–1.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Genoa 2–0
- Sun 24 May · H v Udinese 1–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Pisa 3–0
- Mon 11 May · H v Bologna 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Inter have won 3 of their last 5.
- Inter have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Inter's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Inter's last 5.
- Inter kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Napoli have won 3 of their last 5.
- Napoli have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Napoli's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Napoli's last 5.
- Napoli kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Inter have won 3, Napoli 2, with 5 drawn.
- Inter W–D–L
- 3–5–2
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 10
- Both scored
- 8 of 10
- Inter 2–2 Napoli
- Napoli 3–1 Inter
- Napoli 1–1 Inter
- Inter 1–1 Napoli
- Inter 1–1 Napoli
- Napoli 0–3 Inter
- Napoli 3–1 Inter
- Inter 1–0 Napoli
- Napoli 1–1 Inter
- Inter 3–2 Napoli
7Context
Inter
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Napoli
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · Referee: Simone Sozza, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Inter vs Napoli?
- Our model makes Inter the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 58%.
- Will both teams score in Inter vs Napoli?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Inter vs Napoli?
- Inter's reported absences and doubts include M. Spinacce, D. Spence, J. Stones, H. Calhanoglu and 1 other. Napoli's include L. Spinazzola, A. Meret, Alisson Santos, F. Anguissa and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Inter vs Napoli?
- Inter line up in a 3-5-2, Napoli in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Napoli?
- In their last 10 meetings, Inter have won 3, Napoli 2, with 5 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 8.