Serie A · Regular Season - 3
AS RomavAtalanta
AS Roma
Atalanta·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- AS Roma41% · Match result
- Over 1.577% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes AS Roma the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 58%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives AS Roma a 58% chance. Our model makes it 41%.
2Market
Open: 56% home · 25% draw · 19% away
Now: 58% home · 23% draw · 19% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards AS Roma
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
AS Roma
Confirmed · 3-4-1-2
- E. Ndicka — out (Illness)
- D. Rensch — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Balerdi — out (Calf Injury)
- L. Pellegrini — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Bah — out (Knee Injury)
Atalanta
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- O. Kossounou — out (Thigh Injury)
- G. Gaetano — out (Red Card)
- T. Kristensen — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Rowe — out (Inactive)
- H. Ahanor — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Sulemana — doubtful (Knee Injury)
- K. Sulemana — out (Knee Injury)
- I. Hien — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AS RomaWWWWW
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Lecce 4–0(xG 3.4–0.7)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Fiorentina 4–0(xG 3.1–0.3)
- Sun 24 May · A v Hellas Verona 2–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Lazio 2–0
- Sun 10 May · A v Parma 3–2
AtalantaWWDLW
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Bologna 1–0(xG 0.2–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sassuolo 2–1(xG 0.9–2.7)
- Fri 22 May · A v Fiorentina 1–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Bologna 0–1
- Sun 10 May · A v AC Milan 3–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- AS Roma have won 5 of their last 5.
- AS Roma have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of AS Roma's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of AS Roma's last 5.
- AS Roma kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
- Atalanta have won 3 of their last 5.
- Atalanta have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Atalanta's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atalanta's last 5.
- Atalanta kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, AS Roma have won 2, Atalanta 6, with 2 drawn.
- AS Roma W–D–L
- 2–2–6
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- AS Roma 1–1 Atalanta
- Atalanta 1–0 AS Roma
- Atalanta 2–1 AS Roma
- AS Roma 0–2 Atalanta
- Atalanta 2–1 AS Roma
- AS Roma 1–1 Atalanta
- Atalanta 3–1 AS Roma
- AS Roma 0–1 Atalanta
- AS Roma 1–0 Atalanta
- Atalanta 1–4 AS Roma
7Context
AS Roma
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Atalanta
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadio Olimpico, Roma · Referee: Andrea Colombo, Italy
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
- Our model makes AS Roma the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 58%.
- Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
- AS Roma's reported absences and doubts include E. Ndicka, D. Rensch, L. Balerdi, L. Pellegrini and 1 other. Atalanta's include O. Kossounou, G. Gaetano, T. Kristensen, J. Rowe and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
- AS Roma line up in a 3-4-1-2, Atalanta in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
- In their last 10 meetings, AS Roma have won 2, Atalanta 6, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.