Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2
Werder BremenvRB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- RB Leipzig49% · Match result
- Over 1.581% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes RB Leipzig the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 55%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives RB Leipzig a 55% chance. Our model makes it 49%.
2Market
Open: 23% home · 23% draw · 53% away
Now: 23% home · 22% draw · 55% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards RB Leipzig
Solid: the market over 11 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Werder Bremen
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
- M. N'Diaye — out (Groin Injury)
- S. Lynen — out (Hip Injury)
- J. Njinmah — out (Thigh Injury)
- N. Stark — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Stage — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Regeer — doubtful (Injury)
- O. Wojcik — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Weiser — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Topp — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Agu — out (Calf Injury)
RB Leipzig
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- M. Guiu — out (Hamstring Injury)
- O. Nyland — out (Foot Injury)
- Romulo Cardoso — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Gruda — out (Ankle Injury)
- V. Gebel — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Reitz — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Ouedraogo — out (Shoulder Injury)
- C. Baumgartner — out (Thigh Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Werder BremenLLLLD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v SC Freiburg 1–4(xG 0.5–1.9)
- Sat 16 May · H v Borussia Dortmund 0–2
- Sat 9 May · A v 1899 Hoffenheim 0–1
- Sat 2 May · H v FC Augsburg 1–3
- Sun 26 Apr · A v VfB Stuttgart 1–1
RB LeipzigWLWLW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–0(xG 4.0–0.9)
- Sat 16 May · A v SC Freiburg 1–4
- Sat 9 May · H v FC St. Pauli 2–1
- Sat 2 May · A v Bayer Leverkusen 1–4
- Fri 24 Apr · H v Union Berlin 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Werder Bremen have won 0 of their last 5.
- Werder Bremen have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Werder Bremen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Werder Bremen's last 5.
- Werder Bremen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- RB Leipzig have won 3 of their last 5.
- RB Leipzig have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of RB Leipzig's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of RB Leipzig's last 5.
- RB Leipzig kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Werder Bremen have won 0, RB Leipzig 5, with 3 drawn.
- Werder Bremen W–D–L
- 0–3–5
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 8
- Both scored
- 6 of 8
- Werder Bremen 1–2 RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig 2–0 Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen 0–0 RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig 4–2 Werder Bremen
- RB Leipzig 1–1 Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen 1–1 RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig 2–1 Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen 1–2 RB Leipzig
7Context
Werder Bremen
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
RB Leipzig
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Benjamin Brand, Germany
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
- Our model makes RB Leipzig the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
- Werder Bremen's reported absences and doubts include M. N'Diaye, S. Lynen, J. Njinmah, N. Stark and 6 others. RB Leipzig's include M. Guiu, O. Nyland, Romulo Cardoso, B. Gruda and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
- Werder Bremen line up in a 4-1-4-1, RB Leipzig in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig?
- In their last 8 meetings, Werder Bremen have won 0, RB Leipzig 5, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.