Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2
Bayer LeverkusenvUnion Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen
Union Berlin·
4 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Bayer Leverkusen65% · Match result
- Over 1.581% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Bayer Leverkusen the most likely of the three results, at 65% (we would not be surprised by anything from 58% to 71%). Most likely is not likely: at 65% this result does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 71%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Bayer Leverkusen a 71% chance. Our model makes it 65%.
2Market
Open: 67% home · 19% draw · 14% away
Now: 71% home · 17% draw · 12% away
Moved +4pp — the market moved towards Bayer Leverkusen
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- G. Doue — out (Muscle Injury)
- N. Tella — out (Injury)
- M. Terrier — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Eichhorn — out (Illness)
- M. Culbreath — out (Injury)
- E. Ben Seghir — out (Thigh Injury)
Union Berlin
Confirmed · 4-1-2-1-2
- K. Imeri — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Juranovic — out (Illness)
- S. Nsoki — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Friedrich — out (Injury)
- F. Ronnow — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Ilic — out (Illness)
- O. Burke — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Markgraf — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Bayer LeverkusenLDLWW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v SV Elversberg 2–3(xG 1.9–1.1)
- Sat 16 May · H v Hamburger SV 1–1
- Sat 9 May · A v VfB Stuttgart 1–3
- Sat 2 May · H v RB Leipzig 4–1
- Sat 25 Apr · A v 1. FC Köln 2–1
Union BerlinDWWDL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 3–3(xG 1.9–1.4)
- Sat 16 May · H v FC Augsburg 4–0
- Sun 10 May · A v FSV Mainz 05 3–1
- Sat 2 May · H v 1. FC Köln 2–2
- Fri 24 Apr · A v RB Leipzig 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Bayer Leverkusen have won 2 of their last 5.
- Bayer Leverkusen have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 5.
- Bayer Leverkusen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Union Berlin have won 2 of their last 5.
- Union Berlin have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Union Berlin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Union Berlin's last 5.
- Union Berlin kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, Union Berlin 1, with 4 drawn.
- Bayer Leverkusen W–D–L
- 5–4–1
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 10
- Both scored
- 3 of 10
- Union Berlin 1–0 Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 Union Berlin
- Bayer Leverkusen 0–0 Union Berlin
- Union Berlin 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen
- Union Berlin 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 Union Berlin
- Union Berlin 0–0 Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen 5–0 Union Berlin
- Bayer Leverkusen 2–2 Union Berlin
- Union Berlin 1–1 Bayer Leverkusen
7Context
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Union Berlin
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Robin Braun, Germany
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
- Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen the most likely result at 65%. Most likely is not likely — at 65% it does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 71%.
- Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
- Bayer Leverkusen's reported absences and doubts include G. Doue, N. Tella, M. Terrier, K. Eichhorn and 2 others. Union Berlin's include K. Imeri, J. Juranovic, S. Nsoki, M. Friedrich and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
- Bayer Leverkusen line up in a 4-2-3-1, Union Berlin in a 4-1-2-1-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin?
- In their last 10 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, Union Berlin 1, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.