Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2
FC Schalke 04vBayern München
FC Schalke 04
Bayern München·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Bayern München81% · Match result
- Over 1.588% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Bayern München the most likely of the three results, at 81% (we would not be surprised by anything from 72% to 88%). Most likely is not likely: at 81% this result does not happen 19% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 84%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Bayern München a 84% chance. Our model makes it 81%.
2Market
Open: 6% home · 10% draw · 83% away
Now: 6% home · 10% draw · 84% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Bayern München
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Schalke 04
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- D. Ljubicic — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Lasme — out (Calf Injury)
- A. Gantenbein — out (Ankle Injury)
- K. Karaman — out (Hip Injury)
- R. Schallenberg — out (Red Card)
- T. Kalas — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- E. Hojlund — out (Heel Injury)
Bayern München
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- S. Gnabry — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Musiala — out (Health problems)
- T. Buchmann — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC Schalke 04LLDLW
- Sun 30 Aug · A v FC Augsburg 0–3(xG 1.5–3.5)
- Sat 27 May · A v RB Leipzig 2–4
- Sat 20 May · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2
- Sat 13 May · A v Bayern München 0–6
- Fri 5 May · A v FSV Mainz 05 3–2
Bayern MünchenWWWDW
- Fri 28 Aug · H v VfB Stuttgart 5–1(xG 3.9–0.9)
- Sat 16 May · H v 1. FC Köln 5–1
- Sat 9 May · A v VfL Wolfsburg 1–0
- Sat 2 May · H v FC Heidenheim 3–3
- Sat 25 Apr · A v FSV Mainz 05 4–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Schalke 04 have won 1 of their last 5.
- FC Schalke 04 have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 5 of FC Schalke 04's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Schalke 04's last 5.
- FC Schalke 04 kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Bayern München have won 4 of their last 5.
- Bayern München have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Bayern München's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Bayern München's last 5.
- Bayern München kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, Bayern München 2, with 0 drawn.
- FC Schalke 04 W–D–L
- 0–0–2
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 0 of 2
- Bayern München 6–0 FC Schalke 04
- FC Schalke 04 0–2 Bayern München
7Context
FC Schalke 04
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Bayern München
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Robert Schröder, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München?
- Our model makes Bayern München the most likely result at 81%. Most likely is not likely — at 81% it does not happen 19% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 84%.
- Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München?
- FC Schalke 04's reported absences and doubts include D. Ljubicic, B. Lasme, A. Gantenbein, K. Karaman and 3 others. Bayern München's include S. Gnabry, J. Musiala, T. Buchmann. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München?
- FC Schalke 04 line up in a 3-4-2-1, Bayern München in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Bayern München?
- In their last 2 meetings, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, Bayern München 2, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 0.