Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2
1899 HoffenheimvBorussia Dortmund
1899 Hoffenheim
Borussia Dortmund·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Borussia Dortmund48% · Match result
- Over 1.584% · Goals
- Yes62% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Borussia Dortmund the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 38%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Borussia Dortmund a 38% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 33% home · 25% draw · 43% away
Now: 37% home · 25% draw · 38% away
Moved −5pp — the market moved away from Borussia Dortmund
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- Bernardo — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Prass — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Lemperle — out (Red Card)
- F. Asllani — out (Injury)
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- F. Mane — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Karetsas — out (Health problems)
- R. Bensebaini — out (Ribs Injury)
- J. Lerma — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Konstantelias — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Inacio — out (Red Card)
- N. Schlotterbeck — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Kaba — out (Injury)
- E. Can — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
1899 HoffenheimLLWDW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v 1. FC Köln 2–3(xG 1.8–1.7)
- Sat 16 May · A v Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–4
- Sat 9 May · H v Werder Bremen 1–0
- Sat 2 May · H v VfB Stuttgart 3–3
- Sat 25 Apr · A v Hamburger SV 2–1
Borussia DortmundWWWLW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Hamburger SV 2–0(xG 1.4–0.7)
- Sat 16 May · A v Werder Bremen 2–0
- Fri 8 May · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 3–2
- Sun 3 May · A v Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1
- Sun 26 Apr · H v SC Freiburg 4–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2 of their last 5.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 5.
- 1899 Hoffenheim kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Borussia Dortmund have won 4 of their last 5.
- Borussia Dortmund have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Borussia Dortmund's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Borussia Dortmund's last 5.
- Borussia Dortmund kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, Borussia Dortmund 7, with 1 drawn.
- 1899 Hoffenheim W–D–L
- 2–1–7
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 10
- Both scored
- 7 of 10
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund 2–0 1899 Hoffenheim
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim
- Borussia Dortmund 2–3 1899 Hoffenheim
- 1899 Hoffenheim 1–3 Borussia Dortmund
- 1899 Hoffenheim 0–1 Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund 1–0 1899 Hoffenheim
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund 3–2 1899 Hoffenheim
7Context
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Borussia Dortmund
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
- Our model makes Borussia Dortmund the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.
- Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 62% chance, against 38% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
- 1899 Hoffenheim's reported absences and doubts include Bernardo, A. Prass, T. Lemperle, F. Asllani. Borussia Dortmund's include F. Mane, K. Karetsas, R. Bensebaini, J. Lerma and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
- 1899 Hoffenheim line up in a 4-4-2, Borussia Dortmund in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
- In their last 10 meetings, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, Borussia Dortmund 7, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 7.