Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2

SC Paderborn 07vSC Freiburg

·

0 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

  • SC Paderborn 0737% · Match result
  • Over 1.565% · Goals
  • No54% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Both teams to score: No

Best price 2.38 at William HillThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.

  • We make this 54% against a market price of 40% — 14 points of difference.
  • Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 71% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
  • Their last 8 matches between them averaged 3.0 goals, and 2.2 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
  • Both sides scored in 5 of those 8.
  • 9 players reported unavailable — 6 for SC Paderborn 07, 3 for SC Freiburg.
  • The price has moved 2.9% towards SC Freiburg since it opened.

Our forecast makes SC Paderborn 07 the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 24% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes SC Freiburg the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 25%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives SC Freiburg a 50% chance. Our model makes it 28%.

SC FreiburgModel 28% [16%–43%]Market 50%
SC Freiburg:, our forecast 28%, between 16% and 43%, market 50%

2Market

Open: 28% home · 25% draw · 47% away

Now: 25% home · 25% draw · 50% away

Moved +3pp — the market moved towards SC Freiburg

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home37%vs25%+12pp
Draw34%vs25%+9pp
Away28%vs50%−22pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs58%
Under 2.5—vs42%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.565%vs81%−16pp
Under 1.535%vs19%+16pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs36%
Under 3.5—vs64%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes46%vs60%−14pp
No54%vs40%+14pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

SC Paderborn 07

Confirmed · 3-5-2

  • S. Klaas — out (Muscle Injury)
  • S. Michel — out (Muscle Injury)
  • L. Eickel — out (Back Injury)
  • N. Awortwie-Grant — out (Knee Injury)
  • F. Gotze — out (Concussion)
  • T. Gayret — out (Knee Injury)

SC Freiburg

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • R. Yamamoto — out (Injury)
  • P. Osterhage — out (Muscle Injury)
  • F. Muslija — out (Knee Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

SC Paderborn 07DWD

  • Sat 29 Aug · A v FSV Mainz 05 0–0(xG 0.8–1.2)
  • Mon 25 May · H v VfL Wolfsburg 2–1
  • Thu 21 May · A v VfL Wolfsburg 0–0

SC FreiburgWWLDL

  • Sun 30 Aug · H v Werder Bremen 4–1(xG 1.9–0.5)
  • Sat 16 May · H v RB Leipzig 4–1
  • Sun 10 May · A v Hamburger SV 2–3
  • Sun 3 May · H v VfL Wolfsburg 1–1
  • Sun 26 Apr · A v Borussia Dortmund 0–4

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

SC Paderborn 07
  • SC Paderborn 07 have won 1 of their last 3.
  • SC Paderborn 07 have scored in 1 of their last 3.
  • 1 of SC Paderborn 07's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of SC Paderborn 07's last 3.
  • SC Paderborn 07 kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3.
SC Freiburg
  • SC Freiburg have won 2 of their last 5.
  • SC Freiburg have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 4 of SC Freiburg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of SC Freiburg's last 5.
  • SC Freiburg kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

SC Paderborn 07

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

SC Freiburg

Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d

Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Max Burda, Germany

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
Our model makes SC Paderborn 07 the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time. The market instead favours SC Freiburg at 50%.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
Our model gives both teams to score a 46% chance, against 54% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
SC Paderborn 07's reported absences and doubts include S. Klaas, S. Michel, L. Eickel, N. Awortwie-Grant and 2 others. SC Freiburg's include R. Yamamoto, P. Osterhage, F. Muslija. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
SC Paderborn 07 line up in a 3-5-2, SC Freiburg in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.