Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2
Borussia MönchengladbachvSV Elversberg
Borussia Mönchengladbach
SV Elversberg·
3 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Borussia Mönchengladbach44% · Match result
- Over 1.571% · Goals
- Yes50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Borussia Mönchengladbach the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 28% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 51%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 51% chance. Our model makes it 44%.
2Market
Open: 53% home · 24% draw · 23% away
Now: 51% home · 24% draw · 25% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards SV Elversberg
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Z. Uno — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- D. Hashioka — out (Neck Injury)
- H. Bolin — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- T. Kleindienst — out (Red Card)
- N. Kuhn — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. C. Chiarodia — out (Muscle Injury)
- E. Leopold — out (Knee Injury)
- Y. Konoplya — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Cvancara — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Castrop — out (Shoulder Injury)
SV Elversberg
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- T. Zimmerschied — out (Back Injury)
- L. Seifert — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Borussia MönchengladbachLWLWD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v RB Leipzig 0–3(xG 0.9–4.0)
- Sat 16 May · H v 1899 Hoffenheim 4–0
- Sat 9 May · A v FC Augsburg 1–3
- Sun 3 May · H v Borussia Dortmund 1–0
- Sat 25 Apr · A v VfL Wolfsburg 0–0
SV ElversbergWLD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Bayer Leverkusen 3–2(xG 1.1–1.9)
- Mon 26 May · H v FC Heidenheim 1–2
- Thu 22 May · A v FC Heidenheim 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2 of their last 5.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 5.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- SV Elversberg have won 1 of their last 3.
- SV Elversberg have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 3 of SV Elversberg's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of SV Elversberg's last 3.
- SV Elversberg kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
SV Elversberg
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Martin Petersen, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Elversberg?
- Our model makes Borussia Mönchengladbach the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Elversberg?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Elversberg?
- Borussia Mönchengladbach's reported absences and doubts include Z. Uno, D. Hashioka, H. Bolin, T. Kleindienst and 6 others. SV Elversberg's include T. Zimmerschied, L. Seifert. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Elversberg?
- Borussia Mönchengladbach line up in a 4-2-3-1, SV Elversberg in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.