La Liga · Regular Season - 4
VillarrealvDeportivo La Coruna
Villarreal
Deportivo La Coruna·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Villarreal59% · Match result
- Over 1.579% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Villarreal the most likely of the three results, at 59% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 77%). Most likely is not likely: at 59% this result does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 65%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Villarreal a 65% chance. Our model makes it 59%.
2Market
Open: 65% home · 21% draw · 14% away
Now: 65% home · 21% draw · 14% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Villarreal
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- S. Comesana — out (Injury)
- J. Foyth — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- W. Kambwala — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Diatta — out (Red Card)
Deportivo La Coruna
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- N. Carrillo — out (Injury)
- Angelino — out (Red Card)
- B. Nsongo — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Casado — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Altimira — out (Red Card)
- A. Traore — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Hernandez — out (Groin Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VillarrealLDDWL
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Alaves 0–1(xG 1.3–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atletico Madrid 2–2(xG 3.6–0.8)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Racing Santander 2–2
- Sun 24 May · H v Atletico Madrid 5–1
- Sun 17 May · A v Rayo Vallecano 0–2
Deportivo La CorunaWDD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Valencia 3–1(xG 1.4–1.3)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Malaga 1–1(xG 1.1–1.9)
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Elche 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Villarreal have won 1 of their last 5.
- Villarreal have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Villarreal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Villarreal's last 5.
- Villarreal kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Deportivo La Coruna have won 1 of their last 3.
- Deportivo La Coruna have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 1 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 3.
- Deportivo La Coruna kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Villarreal
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Deportivo La Coruna
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal · Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Our model makes Villarreal the most likely result at 59%. Most likely is not likely — at 59% it does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 65%.
- Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Villarreal's reported absences and doubts include S. Comesana, J. Foyth, W. Kambwala, A. Diatta. Deportivo La Coruna's include N. Carrillo, Angelino, B. Nsongo, M. Casado and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Villarreal line up in a 4-4-2, Deportivo La Coruna in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.