Published forecasts

Every forecast we have published, in the order we published it. Each row carries a hash of itself and the row before, so changing a probability after a match has been played would break every hash after it. That is what stops us quietly revising a number and claiming we always said it — and you do not have to take our word for the check, it runs when you load this page.

The published forecasts for Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 05

These are the forecasts we published for this fixture, hash-chained so a number we wrote before kick-off cannot be quietly changed afterwards.

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Chain intact across all 2034 published forecasts.

Daily seals

At the end of each day we write that day's final hash to separate storage. The chain alone would catch a single altered forecast, but not a wholesale rebuild from edited rows — evidence kept in the same place as the thing it attests to proves less than it appears to. Note a seal today and you can hold us to it later.

#PublishedMatchH / D / AResultHash
10742026-09-04 02:06Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0534% / 27% / 39%our call landedwe called away 39% · away win02ea7b49ec55…
8032026-09-03 05:07Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0534% / 29% / 38%our call landedwe called away 38% · away win11cc631de237…
6442026-09-02 12:10Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0534% / 29% / 38%our call landedwe called away 38% · away win3a98d68094d9…
5282026-09-01 18:06Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0534% / 29% / 37%our call landedwe called away 37% · away wine27829fa3fe8…
4832026-09-01 12:06Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0533% / 29% / 38%our call landedwe called away 38% · away win97a3bba48d44…
4402026-09-01 11:06Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0533% / 29% / 38%our call landedwe called away 38% · away wine794a130e73c…
3972026-09-01 08:06Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0533% / 29% / 38%our call landedwe called away 38% · away win794c20ffee75…
3542026-09-01 07:06Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0533% / 29% / 38%our call landedwe called away 38% · away win577f2516c356…
3112026-08-31 09:07Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0533% / 29% / 38%our call landedwe called away 38% · away win826be288cf9b…
2632026-08-31 07:07Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0533% / 29% / 38%our call landedwe called away 38% · away winb0a2461531e5…
2152026-08-31 06:07Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0533% / 29% / 38%our call landedwe called away 38% · away winb53451d40c36…
1672026-08-30 16:07Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0533% / 29% / 38%our call landedwe called away 38% · away win9048e8888afc…
1072026-08-30 15:07Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0533% / 29% / 38%our call landedwe called away 38% · away win12ed2db43ecb…
472026-08-30 10:07Hamburger SV vFSV Mainz 0533% / 29% / 38%our call landedwe called away 38% · away win54433eb09358…

The result column pairs the outcome we called (our most-likely of home / draw / away, with its probability) against what actually happened — a verdict, not a score: a 60% call missing is not a failure. Whether the probabilities are any good is a separate question, answered on the accuracy page. This page only shows that we have not changed our mind about them afterwards.