Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2
Hamburger SVvFSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
FSV Mainz 05·
0 – 5 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- FSV Mainz 0539% · Match result
- Over 1.577% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes FSV Mainz 05 the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 40%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives FSV Mainz 05 a 40% chance. Our model makes it 39%.
2Market
Open: 33% home · 27% draw · 40% away
Now: 33% home · 28% draw · 40% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards the draw
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Hamburger SV
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- M. Vuskovic — out (Doping)
- S. Bornauw — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Amoako — out (Illness)
- M. Muheim — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. S. Lokonga — doubtful (Back Injury)
- A. Rossing-Lelesiit — out (Ankle Injury)
- W. Omari — out (Personal Reasons)
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- R. Zentner — out (Hand Injury)
- S. Widmer — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Hollerbach — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- D. Kohr — out (Foot Injury)
- Silas — out (Broken shinbone)
- P. Nebel — out (Muscle Injury)
- E. Martel — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Hamburger SVLDWWL
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Borussia Dortmund 0–2(xG 0.7–1.4)
- Sat 16 May · A v Bayer Leverkusen 1–1
- Sun 10 May · H v SC Freiburg 3–2
- Sat 2 May · A v Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1
- Sat 25 Apr · H v 1899 Hoffenheim 1–2
FSV Mainz 05DWLWL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v SC Paderborn 07 0–0(xG 1.2–0.8)
- Sat 16 May · A v FC Heidenheim 2–0
- Sun 10 May · H v Union Berlin 1–3
- Sun 3 May · A v FC St. Pauli 2–1
- Sat 25 Apr · H v Bayern München 3–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Hamburger SV have won 2 of their last 5.
- Hamburger SV have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Hamburger SV's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Hamburger SV's last 5.
- Hamburger SV kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- FSV Mainz 05 have won 2 of their last 5.
- FSV Mainz 05 have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of FSV Mainz 05's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FSV Mainz 05's last 5.
- FSV Mainz 05 kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Hamburger SV have won 1, FSV Mainz 05 0, with 1 drawn.
- Hamburger SV W–D–L
- 1–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 1 of 2
- FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SV
- Hamburger SV 4–0 FSV Mainz 05
7Context
Hamburger SV
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
FSV Mainz 05
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Tobias Reichel, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Hamburger SV's reported absences and doubts include M. Vuskovic, S. Bornauw, K. Amoako, M. Muheim and 3 others. FSV Mainz 05's include R. Zentner, S. Widmer, B. Hollerbach, D. Kohr and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Hamburger SV line up in a 3-4-2-1, FSV Mainz 05 in a 3-5-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05?
- In their last 2 meetings, Hamburger SV have won 1, FSV Mainz 05 0, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.