Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2
Eintracht FrankfurtvFC Augsburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Augsburg·
1 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Eintracht Frankfurt57% · Match result
- Over 1.581% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Eintracht Frankfurt the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 50% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 52% chance. Our model makes it 57%.
2Market
Open: 49% home · 24% draw · 27% away
Now: 52% home · 23% draw · 25% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Eintracht Frankfurt
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- J. Maluze — out (Thigh Injury)
- F. Chaibi — out (Illness)
- A. Knauff — out (Muscle Injury)
- O. Hojlund — out (Hip Injury)
- M. Pimpong — doubtful (Illness)
- J. Ngankam — out (Injury)
- H. Larsson — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Doan — out (Muscle Injury)
- N. Collins — out (Back Injury)
FC Augsburg
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- A. Kade — out (Calf Injury)
- T. Schnitzer — out (Injury)
- S. Suso — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Sakar — out (Ankle Injury)
- K. Jakic — out (Injury)
- S. Mounie — out (Injury)
- T. Breithaupt — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Eintracht FrankfurtDDLLD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Union Berlin 3–3(xG 1.4–1.9)
- Sat 16 May · H v VfB Stuttgart 2–2
- Fri 8 May · A v Borussia Dortmund 2–3
- Sat 2 May · H v Hamburger SV 1–2
- Sat 25 Apr · A v FC Augsburg 1–1
FC AugsburgWLWWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v FC Schalke 04 3–0(xG 3.5–1.5)
- Sat 16 May · A v Union Berlin 0–4
- Sat 9 May · H v Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1
- Sat 2 May · A v Werder Bremen 3–1
- Sat 25 Apr · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Eintracht Frankfurt have won 0 of their last 5.
- Eintracht Frankfurt have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Eintracht Frankfurt's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Eintracht Frankfurt's last 5.
- Eintracht Frankfurt kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- FC Augsburg have won 3 of their last 5.
- FC Augsburg have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Augsburg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Augsburg's last 5.
- FC Augsburg kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, FC Augsburg 1, with 6 drawn.
- Eintracht Frankfurt W–D–L
- 3–6–1
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 10
- Both scored
- 7 of 10
- FC Augsburg 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg 0–0 Eintracht Frankfurt
- Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 FC Augsburg
- Eintracht Frankfurt 3–1 FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg 1–2 Eintracht Frankfurt
- FC Augsburg 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
- Eintracht Frankfurt 0–0 FC Augsburg
7Context
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
FC Augsburg
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Daniel Schlager, Germany
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
- Our model makes Eintracht Frankfurt the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
- Eintracht Frankfurt's reported absences and doubts include J. Maluze, F. Chaibi, A. Knauff, O. Hojlund and 5 others. FC Augsburg's include A. Kade, T. Schnitzer, S. Suso, F. Sakar and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
- Eintracht Frankfurt line up in a 4-4-2, FC Augsburg in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
- In their last 10 meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, FC Augsburg 1, with 6 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 7.