Published forecasts

Every forecast we have published, in the order we published it. Each row carries a hash of itself and the row before, so changing a probability after a match has been played would break every hash after it. That is what stops us quietly revising a number and claiming we always said it — and you do not have to take our word for the check, it runs when you load this page.

The published forecasts for Marseille v Paris FC

These are the forecasts we published for this fixture, hash-chained so a number we wrote before kick-off cannot be quietly changed afterwards.

← Back to the full record

Chain intact across all 2034 published forecasts.

Daily seals

At the end of each day we write that day's final hash to separate storage. The chain alone would catch a single altered forecast, but not a wholesale rebuild from edited rows — evidence kept in the same place as the thing it attests to proves less than it appears to. Note a seal today and you can hold us to it later.

#PublishedMatchH / D / AResultHash
10932026-09-04 03:06Marseille vParis FC60% / 21% / 19%our call did not landwe called home 60% · away wina4966ac63766…
8202026-09-03 06:06Marseille vParis FC58% / 22% / 19%our call did not landwe called home 58% · away win946d2cd5a7c3…
6612026-09-02 12:11Marseille vParis FC58% / 22% / 19%our call did not landwe called home 58% · away win300ea334b7b3…
5362026-09-01 18:07Marseille vParis FC57% / 22% / 20%our call did not landwe called home 57% · away win7c79b1b0b161…
4912026-09-01 12:07Marseille vParis FC58% / 22% / 20%our call did not landwe called home 58% · away win7a5700d1fdae…
4482026-09-01 11:06Marseille vParis FC58% / 22% / 19%our call did not landwe called home 58% · away winb02f29d49e93…
4052026-09-01 08:06Marseille vParis FC58% / 22% / 19%our call did not landwe called home 58% · away win8cb9afbbee45…
3622026-09-01 07:06Marseille vParis FC58% / 22% / 19%our call did not landwe called home 58% · away win91a95219d983…
3192026-08-31 09:07Marseille vParis FC58% / 22% / 19%our call did not landwe called home 58% · away win139d78b874cc…
2712026-08-31 07:07Marseille vParis FC58% / 22% / 20%our call did not landwe called home 58% · away winc7ce9c41320f…
2232026-08-31 06:07Marseille vParis FC58% / 22% / 19%our call did not landwe called home 58% · away win5543e5dee024…
1752026-08-30 16:07Marseille vParis FC58% / 22% / 20%our call did not landwe called home 58% · away win8c973331a812…
1152026-08-30 15:07Marseille vParis FC58% / 22% / 19%our call did not landwe called home 58% · away win4c749fd49d75…
552026-08-30 10:07Marseille vParis FC58% / 22% / 20%our call did not landwe called home 58% · away win4efb133d3e69…

The result column pairs the outcome we called (our most-likely of home / draw / away, with its probability) against what actually happened — a verdict, not a score: a 60% call missing is not a failure. Whether the probabilities are any good is a separate question, answered on the accuracy page. This page only shows that we have not changed our mind about them afterwards.